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D.The diseases Vladimir Putin allegedly has range from cancer to Parkinson’s. In any case, his resignation is imminent. For several weeks, such reports have been persecuted by the international media and Russian social networks. One Moscow expert is usually cited: Valery Solowej, a former professor at the elite university of foreign policy MGIMO.
Reports based on Solowej’s statements are dismissed by the Kremlin as “nonsense” – Putin is healthy. And indeed, after months of videoconferencing the country’s government due to the crown pandemic, the president is gradually daring to go public again.
For his age of only 68, he still makes a quite suitable impression on the viewer. Solowej, on the other hand, an alleged insider, has recently attracted attention with increasingly absurd claims. He claims to be a member of a “powerful and dangerous” secret organization.
Solowej’s remote diagnoses of the Russian president’s health are therefore most likely nothing to be true. But the viral success of these false reports shows that it is not only the West that has grown tired of Putin, but also most Russians – beyond the circles of conspiracy theorists. In any case, they claim that the head of the Kremlin is nothing more than an invention of the Russian power elite, an artificial figure, alternately embodied by several doppelgangers.
The real Putin is in an ambivalent position. The presidential elections in March two years ago were a resounding success for him on paper: Putin received almost 77 percent of the vote. The constitutional reform, which he put to a vote in the midst of the summer pandemic, was adopted with nearly 78 percent of the vote. It allows Putin to remain in power practically indefinitely, either as head of state or in another capacity.
Both in the presidential elections and in the constitutional vote, accusations of sometimes massive manipulation have been leveled, but the Kremlin doesn’t care. On the other hand, Putin’s old image of an almost sacred statesman who first brought material prosperity to his country and then a new global political dimension is gradually fading.
Putin’s great loss of faith in the Russians
After the annexation of Crimea six years ago, Russian confidence in Putin was still a staggering 89%. Three years ago, in polls by the independent research institute Levada, Putin still trusted a remarkable 60% of the population.
Today it’s only 34 percent, and that’s considered a good figure today. In the first months of the pandemic, the Kremlin chief’s aloof behavior and the low level of state aid, especially for small business owners, had made the Russians even less sympathetic. In July, the rating was still at a record low of 23%, but has since recovered in light of Russia’s no-blocking nationwide Covid strategy.
This shows that for the Russians Putin is still the most reliable politician in the country, but he is no longer an inviolable authority. This was also ensured by the increase in the retirement age two years ago, which many Russians perceived as a breach of trust. Before that, Putin had spoken out against pension reform for years.
The big question now is what will happen in 2024 when Putin’s current term expires. The “grandfather”, as the increasingly dissatisfied young Russian adults call the head of the Kremlin, may finally leave to pave the way for a transfer of power. Apparently many Russians want him to at least leave the Kremlin after his term expires.
In a poll by the Levada constituency, only 27 percent of respondents favored Putin’s tenure as president, and a further eleven percent would like to see him as prime minister.
Conversely, a total of 32% of respondents would prefer Putin to disappear from public life or simply retire. In any case, there is no longer a consensus on the continuation of Putin’s government in Russia. The latest draft law in the Duma fuels speculation about a future without Putin. This would allow Putin to remain politically and legally inviolable after a possible resignation as president.
This is a blow to Putin’s critics, who hope his reign will be treated legally after his political mandate expires. Lifting a former president’s immunity would result in such high obstacles that it would not be feasible in practice.
Consequently, if the law passes through the Duma as intended and enters into force, there are few cases in which immunity can be waived: treason or some other serious crime. To do this, the Duma must raise charges, the Federation Council and the Supreme Court must support the House of Commons – while the Russian Constitutional Court confirms the correctness of the procedure.
Does this mean that Putin is immediately preparing for a future outside the presidency? Such a transparent message would not fit Putin’s style. He usually keeps Russian elites and people in the dark about his plans for as long as possible.
Just four months before the 2012 presidential election, he made it public that he wants to rule Russia beyond 2011. Putin wants to surprise, like when he sacked his government earlier this year. However, it can be assumed that he has already developed a plan for the period following his current term.
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