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A sigh of relief was heard from Madrid to Berlin as it became clear that Joseph Biden would be the 64th president of the United States, following Donald Trump’s turbulent four years in the White House. It shouldn’t come as a surprise, since relations between the US and most EU members have been strained, to say the least. However, as a result of the Trump administration’s “America First” policy and the global pandemic, realities have emerged on the ground that will make it impossible to return to pre-Trump transatlantic relations.
Most importantly, if we detach the Trump name from the president’s economic policies, it will become clear that many of them are popular with all political groups in Washington. Although Biden will use a different kind of language, the idea of favoring domestic production at the expense of the global division of labor is already a pillar of the future administration’s political agenda. The president-elect said in a speech on November 16 that “from cars to our stocks we will buy American products. […] Not even a government contract will be awarded to a company that does not manufacture its products here in America. “
Assuming an effective vaccine will be widely available in 2021, the new administration will need to ensure that the domestic workforce will benefit from projected GDP growth. Under pressure from the left wing of his own party, and especially former presidential candidates Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, President Biden will have to move even further left on economic policy.
Although extremely ignored during the election campaign, the so-called “Recommendations of the Biden-Sanders Task Force” contain many ideas that may have come directly from Trump headquarters. An example: “For too long, the global trading system has not kept its promises to American workers. Too many companies have rushed to expatriate jobs and too many countries have broken their promises to be honest and transparent partners. The Covid-19 pandemic has shown what the risks are when too much reliance is on global supply chains. “
The role of benevolent hegemony protecting the liberal free trade world order is as unpopular among Democrats as it is among Trump supporters. A return to Clinton’s commitment to globalization will not materialize under the new administration.
It is equally unlikely that the United States will completely reverse its policy towards China. Though kinder in talking about the noisy Trump, Biden’s team is well aware that Beijing under Xi Jinping has entered the realm of high-power politics, as evidenced by its repression in Hong Kong, which de facto suppressed the city’s autonomy. violating agreements. international attempts to expand its influence in international organizations; and growing attempts to become hegemonic in the Asia-Pacific region. It would be foolish to believe that the newly formed global regional economic partnership (PRCE) will not be used as a tool to design Chinese power. Which means that the “pivot to Asia” announced years ago by President Obama will now become a reality, not so much because Washington would choose to do so, but because it dictates the transformation of realities on the ground.
The 1990s nostalgia expressed by many European decision makers will have an unpleasant brawl with reality, as it can be assumed that China’s massive acquisitions of European infrastructure and Beijing’s growing influence in the old continent will be increasingly scrutinized by the United States. and the participation of EU members in the Belt and Road initiative.
Europe’s dependence on US protection for any shortcomings that might arise from Russia or the Middle East will also need to be seriously rethought. As America pays more attention to the Pacific, US pressure on other NATO members to finally fully comply with the financial and military obligations agreed at the 2014 NATO meeting will not be stopped under President Biden. Furthermore, there are already indications that the US reading of the nuclear deal with Iran – something many European leaders hope – is increasingly unlikely.
The Trump administration’s more aggressive stances may not persist, but the ongoing anti-Iran alliance between Sunni Muslim states and Israel cannot simply be ignored by the future administration. Over the past four years, conventional Middle East thinking has been shattered and, for now, the new approach to reaching agreements with Arab leaders and keeping the Palestinian question frozen has brought more, not less, stability to the region. It can also be hoped, with caution, that the growing pressure on the Palestinian Authority in Saudi Arabia and other Arab states increases the possibility of a realistic future peace agreement. Donald Trump has broken the idea that there can be no progress in the Middle East without an Israeli-Palestinian agreement as a first step. The EU will have to adapt to these new realities, regardless of who is in power in the United States.
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