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This blockade “negatively affects the entire EU”, said on Thursday the Romanian Prime Minister Ludovic Orban, who asked for the “release as soon as possible” of this plan which will benefit “every European citizen”.
The head of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, also called for this plan to be implemented “without delay”. “We continue to face serious circumstances, both economically and healthily,” he said at a hearing before the European Parliament.
These calls anticipate the 17.00 GMT meeting of heads of state and government, which was originally supposed to be dedicated to the Covid-19 epidemic, with the aim of coordinating “to avoid a third wave” in early 2021. Romania it is represented at the top by President Klaus Iohannis.
But while the issue will be addressed, as will the post-Brexit negotiations, the paralysis of the EU budget following the veto expressed by Hungary and Poland will be at the center of the talks. “It will be the elephant in the room,” according to a diplomatic source.
Warsaw and Budapest are firmly opposed to any mechanism that makes European funds subject to respect for the rule of law (independence of the judiciary, of the press, etc.). This mechanism can be activated by a qualified majority of states, therefore without Hungary and Poland.
“The beginning of the crisis”
In retaliation, on Monday the two countries opposed a decision that allowed the EU to raise funds to finance the 750 billion euro recovery plan, thus blocking – in the absence of the required unanimity – the European budget for 2021-2027.
And Slovenia, while not opposed to the adoption of the budget, supported the fringe of the two states on Wednesday.
“It is not a minor problem. It is the beginning of a crisis that will not be resolved one day,” said a European source.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has expressed concern that his country may be deprived of European funds by an arbitrary decision by Brussels to sanction its anti-migration policy. He asked for “objective criteria” and “the possibility of legal recourse”.
“We say + YES + to the European Union and + NO + to the arbitrary criteria for evaluating the so-called + rule of law +”, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki wrote on Facebook Thursday.
On the same wavelength, his Slovenian counterpart Janez Jansa said that “only an independent court can say what the rule of law is”.
Several diplomats cite the possibility of “re-proposing guarantees” linked to the impartiality of this mechanism, reiterating that the State concerned will be able to defend itself and refer the matter to the Court of Justice of the EU.
But will this be enough to convince the ultraconservative government in Warsaw, which claims to defend its values in an “ideological conflict” with the “European oligarchy”?
“Frustrations and anxieties”
The EU is studying several possible “technical clarifications” but “we will see if it is ultimately necessary how to move forward without these blocking countries, because Europe cannot be taken hostage by a number of governments who do not want to go forward, who do not want to respect the essential foundations of our political project, “French Secretary of State for European Affairs Clément Beaune warned Wednesday.
The recovery plan could therefore be the subject of an intergovernmental agreement to exclude dissatisfied states, a technically complex and “premature” option but “on the table”, according to a European source.
The European Parliament has ruled out any renegotiation of the compromise reached after many difficulties.
The exasperation is general and evident. “When you see the positions of Poland and Hungary on migration, climate, rule of law, budget, there are many topics they have difficulty in. We ask them what they want from this Union!” Joked another diplomat.
Sovereign Viktor Orban can play this postponement card because he knows the countries of the South urgently need this plan, explains a source from the European People’s Party (EPP), the right-wing political family that includes Hungarian and Slovenian leaders.
A dangerous game, because Warsaw and Budapest, the main beneficiaries of European funds, have a lot to lose.
No solution is expected for Thursday: this meeting, lasting three hours, will be “an opportunity for an exchange of views”, but “the lack of direct contacts is a disadvantage” because private, often decisive, talks cannot be held. European source.
“The meeting will aggravate frustrations and anxieties, some days of drama and darkness are expected”.
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