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The counting of votes in key states in the US elections will continue in the coming days and Joe Biden appears to be getting close to winning the election. This given that Donald Trump seemed to have a comfortable advantage over his Democratic rival on November 3.
Why do the percentages change radically between the two? Why does counting the votes take so long? These are just two of the questions answered by HotNews, Charles Vernon, legal advisor of “Democrats Abroad Romania” and Radu Florescu, president of this organization.
There were some major states, like Pennsylvania, where Donald Trump was led by a large percentage of Joe Biden on election day. In the meantime, things have changed radically. How is it explained?
Charles Vernon, legal advisor “Democrats Abroad Romania”: Before we see what happened in Pennsylvania, let’s start from the beginning. The Republican administration has taken thousands of lawsuits essentially to limit the voting process, one way or another. One of those trials was in Pennsylvania, where votes continue to be counted.
In Pennsylvania, Republicans run the Senate and House of Representatives in a state where the governor is a Democrat. Republicans were unwilling to reach an agreement with the Democratic governor regarding early voting, even by mail. As a result, there is now an urn in which there is no voting processor.
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In Florida, where I voted, they processed the votes in advance, I was able to go online, I entered my name and personal details, and I also found that my vote has already been counted. That’s why in Florida the result came very quickly.
Republicans and the Trump administration, in their attempt to stop voting and change the rules, have prevented Pennsylvania from having the legal tools to count and process early votes. There were millions and millions of votes to count. So the explanation isn’t mysterious: Republicans have blocked the counting process, which means things are moving very hard now.
It was deliberate, now the votes are counted by hand and this is a very time-consuming process. Suppose 10 people count 100 votes per hour, how long will they count 5 million votes? It happened.
In many states there is a quick procedure, such as in Florida.
Regarding voting by mail: traditionally, voting by mail is not very common. In Georgia, for example, most people go to the polls on election day. But now we have a historic number of people who voted by mail. So there are technical explanations (no- for which the counting process continues), there is nothing political in between.
Radu FlorescuSpeaking of numbers, there were 300,000 email votes in Pennsylvania in 2016 and 2.5 million in 2020, and this shows the impact this type of vote will have on election results.
Charles Vernon: The people who voted by mail are mostly Democrats. There are people who were worried about the coronavirus, they were afraid to go to the polling station in person. Furthermore, Democrats traditionally vote more by mail than Republicans. And the areas where votes were counted slowest, in the 2016 and 2008 elections, are big cities like Detroit, Philadelphia, which are predominantly Democratic.
In conclusion, what we have now are cities where, historically, the votes are slowing down and these votes are democratic. That is why the percentages on voting day have changed dramatically. We expect an extraordinary balance in Pennsylvania and Georgia.
Radu Florescu: Even in pro-Trump regions, the red regions, voting by mail is for Democrats. Because? Because the Democrats sent this signal because of the pandemic so that people take no chances and vote by mail. By comparison, Trump sent the message that the pandemic is not a problem, go and vote “in person”. I could also say that it is a different cultural approach between the two fields.
Trump says these days that the elections have been rigged. What happens in this situation? Who decides the winner? Will it arrive at the Supreme Court?
Charles Vernon: Not really, not exactly. From a technical point of view, each state will certify its own vote count. Maybe the recount will come. In Georgia, for example, Biden can currently win by a margin of 500 votes. Out of 5 million votes in a state like Georgia, the winner can be decided with 500 votes. There will definitely be a recount here.
Radu Florescu: In Georgia, a new counting of the votes has already been requested.
Charles Vernon: If the difference is less than one percent, as in Wisconsin, you can ask for a recount.
Read also: American elections 2020. A “hot” analysis with Professor Alin Fumurescu, University of Houston: “It is clear that there is a huge discrepancy between the virtual and the real world. And the real world always wins “.
Who decides whether or not to count the votes?
Charles Vernon: The Electoral Commission decides it. But there are observers, Republicans have observers, Democrats have observers. In every place where the votes are counted there are also republicans, plus in the republican states they have organized elections, there are their officials. There are also volunteers and members in the polling stations.
Some of the polling stations are filmed 24 hours a day. This is why I think the recount of votes is unlikely to change the results.
Each state has its own rules: some states accept that the votes arrive even now even if they were sent before the election date. In Pennsylvania, they wait four days. So there are votes coming in today, and if the post date is before election day, then those votes matter.
So we have to consider one more thing. The postal service is slow. This is another controversy, that relating to the post office. The head of this institution is a Trump donor and was appointed by Trump to this position.
It was a court-ordered inspection at the post office 48 hours before the election, and officials from this institution said “go to hell” and ignored the court order. And now, 150,000 postal votes from these states have not yet been delivered.
It may not be a big deal in some states, but in a state like Georgia it can be a big deal. Really huge. And, as I said, a lot of the votes sent in the mail are to the Democrats. And so you can have 5,000 votes in Pennsylvania or Georgia that don’t get counted because of the post office. It is problematic.
Trump continues to talk about fraud without any evidence and with his observers in every room where votes are counted, which is silly.
When do you think we will have the final result of this election?
Radu Florescu: I think tonight in Georgia and Pennsylvania, Nevada through Saturday-Sunday, I don’t know why, Arizona will end this weekend.
Charles Vernon: If you now see in the newspapers that there is a winner in some states, this is just an estimate, it is an unofficial result based on a statistical analysis. Votes are counted, it’s an ongoing process, then they’re certified under state rules, and the official results will be announced in mid-November.
This is the legal process. It’s hard, it’s not complicated, it’s just math. If we count at the rate of 1000 votes per hour, how many hours do we take to count all the votes?
Do you expect protests in the next few days in major US cities?
Radu Florescu: In some states, protests from pro-Trump voters have already started because Trump also said that “hey, the elections are fraudulent”. In Philadelphia, a Hummer gunman tried to enter the “convention center” where votes are counted and was arrested. There was a protest in Phoenix Arizona.
But I think the demonstrations are limited, they won’t be violent right now. But once the winner is declared, Biden or Trump, yes, I expect demonstrations. But it’s hard to say now.
Charles Vernon: In Nevada, Republicans in Arizona shout “count the votes, count the votes!”, While in Pensylvannia and Georgia they shout “stop counting!”, “Stop counting!”. Choose now, what is the correct message?
I think the level of protests will increase, some may scare us a little but I don’t think we will have mass protests, at least for now. The atmosphere is quiet now, I might say.
Radu Florescu: We must remember, however, that in the popular vote Biden has more than 70 million votes, a huge number. I think one lesson we need to learn from this is that it was a crushing anti-Trump vote. Despite the split between Democrats and Republicans, America has said “enough” to Trump.
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