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The big surprise was what happened in Congress, where Republicans performed drastically better than their predictions of Trump’s resounding defeat.
Let’s start with the Senate: Most independent analysts have long predicted that the Democrats will most likely get a majority on November 3.
“The Democrats clearly remain the favorites to win back the Senate with only a few days left until election day,” wrote Jessica Taylor, Senate Editor-in-Chief of Cook Political Report (a non-partisan online newsletter that reviews U.S. elections and campaigns ).
“The lack of a tougher presidential race means Trump continues to be an anchor that will condemn the failure of many incumbent Republicans,” he added.
It didn’t happen that way. Yes, the Republicans in Colorado lost a seat, but so did the Democrats in Alabama. And Republicans considered endangered in Maine, Iowa and Montana have won, in the last two states, by a significant margin.
In Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly, a former NASA astronaut, has confronted Republican Martha McSally, but the Democrats have no other obvious advantages.
Now to the House of Representatives: in the days leading up to the election, political analysts said not only that Republicans would not regain a majority in the lower house of Congress, but that they could face double-digit losses.
Again, this didn’t happen. Not at all.
“At the time of writing, Republicans are on the verge of winning 5 to 10 seats in the House,” David Wasserman, Cook Report director for the House of Representatives, said Wednesday afternoon.
This means Republicans will most likely remain in the minority in 2021, but lowering the lead would make every vote a substantial effort for Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic leader in the House.
Furthermore, if Biden wins the presidency, Republicans would be well positioned to run for a majority in the lower house in the 2022 mid-term elections.
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