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(CNN) –– US President Donald Trump has yet to formally concede the 2020 presidential race, but he already plans to race again in 2024.
Both Axios and The Washington Post recently reported that Trump has mentioned to his relatives his plans to launch again in 2024. Also, the decision he made this Wednesday to publicly endorse Ronna McDaniel for another term as president of the Republican National Committee send a clear message. Specifically, that the future former president has no intention of giving up his control over the Republican Party, just because he lost the 2020 election.
And here’s the scariest thing for his would-be Republican rivals with their sights set on 2024. It’s very hard to imagine anyone preventing Trump from being the party’s candidate in four years if they so wish.
Because? Because Trump is not only the dominant figure in the party (and in the party ranks) right now. He is also the only face of the Republican Party. Indeed, the result is a four-year campaign designed to eradicate all voices of dissent within the community by turning the remaining members into volunteer supplicants. What that campaign forged is a devastated Republican landscape in which Trump is effectively like the Eye of Sauron. That is, a totally overbearing presence that induces terror for everyone who watches.
Consider what we know about the candidates for 2024.
Vice President Mike Pence, Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton, Missouri Senator Josh Hawley, and former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley will likely retire if Trump indicates that he wants the appointment again. Precisely because they know they are not likely to defeat him and they don’t want to destroy his future opportunities by trying.
Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Florida Senator Marco Rubio could run even if Trump were in the running, but we’ve already seen this movie. Trump beat them both hard in 2016. And that was before he was elected president.
Maryland Governor Larry Hogan and Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse? Both could run as anti-Trump candidates, whether the president is actually in the running or not. But while they may have little chance of winning the nomination without Trump in sight, they would have no chance if he were launched.
Trump has transformed the base of the Republican Party over the past five years. It was a group of people generally linked by similar views on economic and social policy (lower taxes, smaller government, protection of the unborn, appointment of conservative judges). It is now what is best understood as a personality cult revolving around him.
Everything Trump says, the base considers it true. Whoever is to the liking of the president, even be them. Those who attack, they attack. It is on the edge of Pavlovian. And it’s further evidenced by the fact that Trump’s views on many issues – government size, debt and deficit, trade – are anathema to where the party’s base (and its elected leadership) was just a decade ago.
The numbers are staggering. In Gallup’s latest pre-election poll, 94% of Republicans tested how Trump did his job. Among the “conservative Republicans,” who make up the majority of the ranks, approval for the job was 97 percent. Yes, 97%!
Will Trump lose some of his luster once he exits the White House and isn’t every minute top priority? Obviously. Something. But Trump has no intention of totally giving up the spotlight that illuminates him. It is already rumored that he is considering starting a television network to challenge Fox News’ dominance in the conservative mindset. He has created a political action committee that will allow him to raise funds and distribute dollars to candidates who run in his image. And then there’s his Twitter account, along with his 88.9 million followers, where Trump will undoubtedly continue to cast the bait that made the party base so loyal to him.
Now whether Trump will actually be launched again in 2024 is a more difficult question to answer. He’ll be 78 years old in 2024. And who knows if the various legal tangles he’ll face once he leaves the White House will trip him up or change his plans.
But what is clear is that unless the Republican base undergoes a drastic rethinking of its views on Trump, the next Republican presidential nomination is up to them.
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