What will happen after the presidential election?

Supporters of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris celebrate the victory of their candidates in Time Square in New York.

Andrew Kelly / Reuters

The latest developments

• Future President Joe Biden presented his expert advice on Monday to contain the crown pandemic. “I will be briefed by scientists and experts,” Biden said in a message. The council should support him in shaping the new government’s anti-crown measures. The jury receives a top three consisting of Vivek Murthy, David Kessler and Marcella Nunez-Smith. Murthy was the U.S. government’s chief medical officer from 2014 to 2017, Kessler previously headed the FDA’s Food and Drug Administration, and Nunez-Smith is a professor at Yale University. The board also has ten other members, many of whom have worked for previous US governments.
• Estonian Interior Minister Mart Helme announced his resignation after the riots over his doubts about the legality of the US elections. The right-wing populist politician resigned from office on Monday. With this step he wanted to preserve the ruling coalition, Helme said according to a radio report. In Estonia there had previously been a controversy over the statements made by Helme and his son and finance minister Martin Helme on Sunday’s radio broadcast. Both have questioned the legitimacy of the vote in the United States.
• The German Chancellor congratulates Joe Biden and Kamala Harris on their electoral victory. She likes to recall good conversations and encounters with Biden, Angela Merkel said in a short speech on Monday (November 9). The newly elected president has decades of experience in domestic and foreign politics. Harris, on the other hand, is an inspiration to many as the son of two immigrants and as the first woman in the role of vice president. Merkel argued that Germany and Europe should “take more responsibility” in security matters and wished the newly elected duo much “strength, success and God’s blessing”. Biden and Europe: A New Beginning in Transatlantic Relations?
• Apparently, Donald Trump is planning events where he wants to solicit support for his lawsuit against the election results. The spokesperson for Trump’s electoral campaign team confirmed this on Sunday (November 8) to the Reuters news agency. Trump wants to take action against the election results in several member states. Trump’s spokesperson did not say when these events should occur.
• Jill Biden will be the first wife of an American president to continue her career. He has been teaching English at North Virginia Community College for ten years. A spokesperson for the future First Lady confirmed on Sunday (November 8) that she would continue teaching there.
• On Twitter, Trump complains that the big media are proclaiming an election winner. “Since when does the Lamestream media determine who will be our next president?” Said one of his tweets on Sunday (November 8). “We have all learned a lot in the past two weeks.” “Lamestream media” is Trump’s artistic term that is meant to amalgamate the mainstream media he criticizes and “lame” (lame). In the United States it is common for presidential elections to be decided on the basis of the forecasts of large news organizations and news agencies.
• Former US President George W. Bush congratulated Biden on winning the presidential election. He had spoken to “President-elect” Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris, the last remaining Republican former president said Sunday. “Even though we have political differences, I know Joe Biden is a good man.” Bush also congratulated defeated Trump and his supporters on their campaign. “It has won the votes of over 70 million Americans – an outstanding political achievement.”

Joe Biden has achieved his goal: to become the 46th American president. With his victory in the state of Pennsylvania on Saturday, November 7, Biden surpassed the decisive limit of 270 voter votes. The results of some member states are still pending, but they can no longer change Biden’s election.

However, it will be more than two months before the inauguration on January 20, 2021. The first challenge for the newly elected president will be, unusually, to overcome the legal challenges of the current president. After that, Biden must assemble his government team in the transition period. Only then should it gradually become clear which course and what changes it will actually undertake.

Current President Donald Trump does not acknowledge his defeat and has stated that he will take legal action against the results or further counting of the votes cast. Trump poses as the victim of systematic election fraud with no evidence to back up his claims.

President Trump relies on the help of the courts to be able to miraculously win in the end. But there is hardly any threat of a repeat of the epic argument in 2000. At the time, a Supreme Court decision only made it clear in December that George W. Bush and not Al Gore had won the election. In contrast to the electoral battle in Florida 20 years ago, the decision in the race for the White House this time around does not depend on a single state.

In a written statement released on Saturday, November 7, Trump pointed out that Biden had only been proclaimed by the media, but not yet based on an official final result. The president ignores preliminary results published by state authorities and says “illegal ballots” are being counted.

The goal is apparently to undermine the credibility of the elections and prepare for a lengthy legal battle that will help Trump retain power. But this is countered by the fact that Biden is leading in several “swing states”. Recount may be required, but these hardly ever change the overall result. Trump’s lawyers have filed lawsuits against mail-order voting in all controversial states, but they haven’t gone very far because there is no evidence of widespread election fraud.

The Democrats have managed – albeit barely – to take over two of the Midwestern states that made a decisive contribution to Trump’s victory four years ago. The votes of the voters of Wisconsin and Michigan, along with those of Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania, were decisive for his electoral victory. Biden may also point to a solid distance from Trump in the national vote count, which has nearly four million fewer votes.

Conversely, the Democrats’ predictions of a landslide full-scale victory, as many polls had suggested, were not met. To some extent, this detracts from Biden’s claim of a mandate to initiate a radical change of policy, which is particularly sought after by the left wing of the Democrats. Explosive plans, for example to expand the Supreme Court with additional judges or to create member state status for the capital Washington and Puerto Rico, should not be politically enforceable.

On December 14, 2020, the electors chosen in the November 3 elections will meet in the Electoral College to elect the President and Vice President. This is in itself a question of form, because the electorate is obliged to follow the electoral result of their member state. The votes will be counted on January 6, 2021 – the official final result of the 2020 elections will only be formally known on this date.

The new president will be sworn in on January 20 for his four-year term until 2025. Until his inauguration, Biden will primarily be busy assembling his government team. Their composition will provide a first indication of the course that the new president will follow in all relevant policy areas.

In addition to the presidential office, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate were recently allocated on the election date. The composition of the legislature thus obtained decides whether Congress will make government easier or more difficult for the future president. The polls had given Democrats hope that they would be able to achieve a majority in the Grand Chamber and a majority in the Senate. But this “blue wave” did not materialize. In the House of Representatives, Republicans have even managed to snatch at least seven seats from the Democrats. On the contrary, they could only get one seat in the Senate. The race for the small chamber will certainly not be decided until January, when the ballot takes place in Georgia.

It is already clear, however, that President Biden will not have to deal with a complacent Congress and that his legislative plans are unlikely to be implemented without compromise. This will disappoint the party left, which has hoped for more in return for its support for Biden after the party’s internal elimination and has sought a radical break with the Trump era.

Could it be that Donald Trump declares himself the winner on election night before the end of the vote count? This was the anxious question before the election. And that’s exactly what happened. Could it therefore be that he does not recognize a subsequent electoral result? This question can also be answered with a yes. But could it also be that he will refuse to leave the White House on January 20? This bizarre notion remains only speculation for the moment. But if he retires from office according to the rules, what role will he claim for himself? At least, for example, he wouldn’t have had to endure any inhibitions on Twitter. It is therefore to be expected that, unlike the previous presidents, he will attack his successor from the start and will emerge as a kind of opposition leader. Supporters are already spreading the word that he could run for president again in 2024. The question then will be whether he will be followed by other circles of his supporters besides a hard core and how far he and his influence can still be expected on American politics.

The two large American parties have a different organizational structure from most parties in Europe. When they appoint the president, they usually shape the appearance and image of the party. In Trump’s case, this is especially true because, as an outsider and career changer, he became a presidential candidate in 2016, partly against the will of Republican leaders. After his election, he dominated them even more and sidelined the existing party establishment if his representatives did not declare their loyalty to him. The sacred principles of foreign and economic policy that had previously been applied were suddenly no longer valid.

The question in the post-Trump era will therefore be whether and to what extent Republicans distance themselves from Trump. Slight withdrawal movements have already been observed during the election campaign, but they have remained only moderate. But now it remains to be seen in which direction the party will develop in the future. She considers herself a representative of the electorate to whom Trump has addressed, but who was barely among the regular voters of the Republicans, or not? Or will there be some sort of division of the party?

with agency material