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January 15, 2019 07:54 AM
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Updated January 15, 2019 at 8:14 am
The British parliament put to vote on Tuesday the exit agreement of the European Union (EU) presented by Prime Minister Theresa May.
It is a crucial day in the so-called Brexit, although this phrase has been repeated many times during the process.
And is that since 52% of British voters chose to leave Europe in the 2016 referendum, there have been many key dates.
But this Tuesday is particularly relevant because we are already in the final phase of the divorce process of the British from their European partners. And the spirits are very hot.
This vote should have taken place on December 11th, but in the face of a certain defeat, May postponed him to January.
The decision has generated the rejection even among the parliamentarians of his own party, who have called a vote of no confidence to remove her from office, although the prime minister managed to overcome it.
Now there are only two months left until 29 March, the day when the United Kingdom will leave the EU. And as the day approaches, more doubts arise as to whether the break will materialize on this date.
According to information from the British newspaper The GuardianThe EU is preparing to extend this deadline until July if the Prime Minister asks for it.
And in May itself has widened possible scenarios on Monday warning the legislator that, if it does not emerge victorious in the vote, the Brexit itself would be in danger.
"Resolve the issue of our retreat and we can move forward in the creation of a new relationship (with Europe) Support the agreement and work can begin last Wednesday and we will have to face the risk of leaving without an agreement or the even greater risk of not leaving, "he said.
Image Caption Teresa May says that if your plan is not approved, Brexit himself is in danger IMAGES
The uncertainty is such that economists divide their growth forecasts for the United Kingdom into three: one in the case of Brexit by agreement, one in the case of an agreement without agreement and another in the case where the United Kingdom remains in the EU, according to an article in the Financial Times.
May herself had warned at the beginning of January in an interview with the BBC that if her plan had not been approved, the United Kingdom would enter "unknown territory".
The BBC correspondent, Rob Watson, said in a recent article that not even the closest advisors to May seem to know if the prime minister has a plan B.
"Both in public and, apparently, in private, she insists that her plan is the best and the only way to enforce the referendum without destroying the economy," he said.
Although both Watson and other analysts give some suggestions on what the government could do in case their proposal does not prosper.
Brexit difficult
The most risky option is that the United Kingdom continues with the planned timetable and withdraws from the EU on 29 March without having reached an exit agreement.
Neither May nor most of the House of Commons (composed of 650 deputies) want this to happen, although according to the Financial Times there would be between 80 and 100 Eurosceptic conservative members who would accept it.
The date scheduled for Brexit, March 29, is approaching IMAGES
It is a scenario that has become increasingly possible in recent weeks, which has led companies and governments to speed up the preparation of measures before a Brexit without agreement.
For example, Spain, the country of the EU with most UK residents, has an emergency plan that includes, among others, ways to guarantee the rights of its citizens living in the UK and vice versa .
Even so, the Spanish chancellor, Josep Borrell, said Monday that a Brexit lasts (without agreement) would be "a catastrophe for the whole world".
The British would see its consequences in many aspects of their daily lives. For example, in the supply and price of food from Europe, which would start to pass customs controls and be taxed.
New vote
The unfavorable consequences of a hard Brexit mean that there are still many who see this option distant and unlikely, and prefer to think, instead, that politicians will find an alternative solution.
One of these would be May to lose by less than 100 votes, in order to be able to present an improved version of his plan for a new vote.
From Dover, the port of entry into the UK from the EU, spend 11,000 trucks per day | IMAGES
In this case, it remains to be seen if the prime minister is able to obtain new concessions from the EU, which seems unlikely.
According to information obtained from the BBC's political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, this is what several members of the Conservative Party of May expect: that the prime minister has at least one more chance to get his proposal approved.
In this case, according to Kuenssberg, May will have to renounce his characteristic "secrecy" and clarify to parliamentarians what his next steps will be.
"Will it turn towards what many in parliament want: a closer relationship with the EU, perhaps in the direction of a sort of customs union?"
"Or it will double the preparations for a hard Brexit, trying (something we do not believe too much) to show that it is really willing to go without agreement, in the hope that this pressure can convince the EU to break and make it clear that it will not will it surrender? ", Kuenssberg asked in an analysis published on Sunday.
Many of those who voted against Brexit have the hope that the government will respond with a second referendum.
Many are enthusiastic about the idea of a second IMAGE referendum
To get the time to organize it, the UK should ask the EU to postpone the departure date, since aspects such as who will be able to vote and what the demand for the ballot will be should be discussed and approved.
Its elaboration would require at least 22 weeks, according to experts from the Constitution of the University College of London.
The future of May
Another option would be to renegotiate the exit agreement altogether, as Peter Barnes, BBC's political and electoral analyst underlined in an article published on Monday.
This would also imply the request for a postponement to the EU which should be accepted by all of its Member States and a modification of the British law governing Brexit. And of course, that the EU would agree to renegotiate a deal.
Although initially the EU's intention was for Brexit to become effective before the European elections in May this year, so that the United Kingdom would not participate in them.
But can he remain in command of the country if his proposal on Brexit fails?
The Labor Party, the main opposition party, has already warned that it will require a vote of no confidence that would jeopardize the May leadership.
Even if Labor does not demand it, the prime minister's popularity in his party is so low that it is always possible for some conservatives to try to take her away from power, as they did without success on December 12th.
The situation could also stem from the fact that Theresa May herself has called for the intention to strengthen her authority, Barnes said.
If within a period of 14 days the parliament will not give its confidence in May or an alternative government, general elections will be held and this could not be before the passage of at least 25 working days.
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