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It has been 20 years since the China-Africa Cooperation Forum was held for the first time. Another summit is scheduled for September 2021 in Dakar, Senegal. Meanwhile, Chinese and African officials are reviewing and reflecting on their 20-year relationship.
China’s growing engagement with Africa has had a positive, albeit uneven, effect on Africa’s economic growth, economic diversification, job creation and connectivity.
China-Africa relations are mostly organized through government-to-government relations. But the perceptions and well-being of ordinary people should be considered better.
In 2016, the Pan-African research institute Afrobarometer published its first study on what Africans think about their governments’ engagement with China.
The study found that 63% of citizens surveyed from 36 countries generally have positive feelings towards China’s assistance. Some things that stood out were China’s infrastructure, development and investment projects in Africa. On the flip side, the perception of the quality of Chinese products has tarnished the country’s image.
In 2019/20, Afrobarometer conducted another wave of surveys. Data from 18 countries – collected face-to-face from a randomly selected sample of people in the respondent’s chosen language – was collected before the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey questions focused on how Africans perceive Chinese loans, debt repayment and Africa’s dependence on China for its development.
Early results show that while most Africans prefer the United States to China as a development model, China’s influence is still widely regarded as positive.
Preliminary results show that while most Africans still prefer the United States to China as a development model, China’s influence is still widely regarded as positive for Africa and that Africans who are aware of Chinese loans feel that their countries have borrowed too much.
This is important because, as both African and Chinese leaders reflect on their commitment, these achievements should enable them to build a forward-looking relationship that better reflects the views and needs of African citizens.
Afrobarometer
USA vs China
Polls have found that Africans still prefer the American development model to the Chinese one. The Chinese development model depends on state-led political planning, while the American model emphasizes the importance of the free market.
Afrobarometer
In the 18 countries surveyed, 32% preferred the American development model, while 23% preferred the Chinese model. Overall, this hasn’t changed much since 2014/15, but some changes emerge nationwide.
In Lesotho and Namibia, the United States has overtaken China as a preferred development partner. In Burkina Faso and Botswana, China is preferred. Angolans and Ethiopians, who were not included in the 2014/15 survey, are partial to the American model. However, 57% of Ethiopians and 43% of Angolans believe that China’s influence is having a positive impact on their countries.
Analysts said China’s development model is dynamic and multifaceted. It has changed over time depending on the context and the period. African governments must decide which aspects of the Chinese model are best for their countries.
A closer look at the responses from the 2014/15 and 2019/20 polls shows that in countries where China has invested primarily in infrastructure, perceptions have remained stable or have become more positive. This includes Ghana, Nigeria, Uganda, Guinea, and the Ivory Coast.
China’s popularity increases in the Sahel
Perception of China has changed for the better in some countries in the Sahel region. Some of these countries are among the most neglected and conflict-ridden in the world.
Strategically, China has been deeply involved in security and development activities, infrastructure projects related to the Belt and Road Initiative, and peace and security operations in the region.
In Burkina Faso, for example, the popularity of the Chinese development model has almost doubled, from 20% to 39%, in the five years since the previous survey.
In Guinea, where Chinese companies are mainly involved in mining projects, 80% of citizens perceive China’s economic and political influence as positive, four percentage points more than five years ago. Overall, China’s growing involvement in the Sahel region appears to have had a strong impact on citizens’ views.
Economic fortunes and debt repayment
The majority of African citizens say that China’s economic activities have “some” or “a lot” of influence on their countries’ economies. But perceived influence decreased from 71% in 2014/15 to 56% in 2019/20 in the 16 countries surveyed in both rounds.
And while six out of 10 Africans view China’s influence on their country as positive, this perception has dropped from 65% to 60% in 16 countries. Instead, African regional powers, UN and regional organizations, and Russia performed well in terms of perceived positive influence. Russia was perceived well by 38%.
This could be a reflection of Russia’s growing political, economic and security engagement with Africa, as well as the role of Russian media such as Russia Today and Sputnik. A recent study of digital media content in French-speaking West Africa revealed how digital content produced by these media houses is rapidly penetrating African media spaces.
The Afrobarometer survey revealed that less than half (48%) of African citizens are aware of Chinese loans or financial assistance to their country.
Of those who said they were aware of Chinese assistance, over 77% were concerned about the loan repayment. The majority (58%) thought their governments had borrowed too much money from China.
Afrobarometer
In the countries that have received the most Chinese loans, citizens have expressed concern about debt. This included Kenya, Angola and Ethiopia. In those countries, 87%, 75% and 60% of citizens respectively were worried about the debt burden.
Lessons learned
The latest afrobarometer data provides lessons to both Sino-African relations analysts and African leaders.
First, there is a monopoly or duopoly of influence in Africa. In addition to the United States and China, there is a mosaic of actors, both African and non-African, that citizens consider to have a political and economic influence on their countries and their future. These actors include the United Nations, the African regional powers and Russia.
The survey results show that although Chinese influence remains strong and positive in the eyes of citizens, it is lower than it was five years ago. This decline could also be linked to the perception of loans and financial assistance, framed by the “debt trap” narrative and allegations of Chinese asset seizures.
Once fieldwork resumes, future afrobarometer investigations in other countries could shed light on the ways in which the pandemic and Chinese “ crown diplomacy ”, and media reports on the mistreatment of African citizens in Guangzhou, have hit the hearts and minds of the people of Africa.
Folashade Soule, Senior Research Associate, Oxford university and Edem E. Selormey, Research Director, Ghana Center for Democratic Development
This article was republished by The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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