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In the last decade alone, the number of international migrants has increased nearly sixfold, a global mix of people unlike any time in recent history. One more reason therefore to witness a new civil war in one of the most diverse nations in the world: Ethiopia. The future of democracies increasingly depends on how these countries hold their multi-ethnic societies together.
The month-long conflict between the Ethiopian government and a rebellious minority, the Tigrays, threatens its long-term attempts at political harmony between 10 ethnic regions. It also threatens stability across the Horn of Africa as tens of thousands of civilians have fled the fighting.
How the war ends will determine whether Ethiopia can remain united as a country. Many foreign governments are pushing for a negotiated solution. For now, the war is more about how it started and whether opportunities to keep the peace were lost.
On 4 November, well-armed leaders of the predominantly ethnic state of Tigray, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), reportedly attacked a national military base near the region’s capital, Mekelle. A few weeks earlier, they also held an election in spite of the central authorities. Faced with such belligerence, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has chosen to deploy the military – rather than any peaceful alternative – to quell the rebellion.
Mr. Abiy took office in 2018 promising to form a more united democracy. Oromo of ethnicity, his rise marked a power shift from the Tigrayans, who make up 6% of the population but have held a huge hold in the nation’s capital for nearly three decades. Tensions have increased since Mr. Abiy systematically displaced the Tigrayans from political and military positions.
The prime minister views the Tigray rebellion as an illegal attack on Ethiopian sovereignty. His predecessor, Hailemariam Desalegn, emphasized the futility of dialogue with the TPLF in an essay on Foreign Policy last week. He argued that Tigray leaders – his former colleagues – provoked the conflict to manipulate international mediation in an attempt to regain influence through peace talks.
In pursuit of a decisive military victory, Abiy has already fueled the escalation of ethnic tensions elsewhere. In recent months, some 2.5 million Ethiopians have been displaced by violence. Three days before the Tigray rebellion, at least 54 people were killed in a schoolyard in Oromia, another ethnostate.
Mr. Abiy’s harsh response surprised many people. He won the Nobel Peace Prize a year ago for negotiating an end to a 20-year military stalemate with Eritrea. Ethiopian troops serve in United Nations peacekeeping missions. As the war approaches resolution, Ethiopia must seek new solutions in other African countries that have erupted into inter-ethnic wars. South Africa, Rwanda, Burundi, Nigeria and Mozambique faced similar challenges. Each in their own way has struggled to build what Mr. Abiy himself calls a “social pact” that creates a “just, egalitarian, democratic and humane society.”
If it sees the conflict in Tigray as a necessary step to protect that vision, victory in the army requires a corresponding strength: the wisdom and courage to forge an identity beyond ethnic difference that embraces all Ethiopians in peace.
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