United States: Why Joe Biden’s Path Will Be Difficult Until Possession – 2020 United States Elections – Internationals

Joe Biden got enough votes from the Electoral College this weekend to become president-elect of the United States. But from now on to possession, scheduled for January 20, there are two months left and a lot could still happen. In fact, it could turn into a real minefield.

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This is thanks to the complex electoral system that exists in this country, where the voters They do not elect their president directly, but rather the representatives of an electoral college, made up of 538 people, who should respect the will of the people and support the candidate who won in each state.

Under normal conditions, it is a rather formal process. Generally, once the winner of the election is known, as happened this Saturday, the losing candidate makes a call to the winner in which he acknowledges defeat and begins the transition process where the outgoing government andntrant perform the splice while this process proceeds in the background.

The problem is that Donald Trump did not want to accept the results. On the contrary, he asked he counts in at least five states and his team has launched a multi-pronged legal battle to try to derail Biden’s triumph.

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His goal, everything points, is to reverse the results in some of these states to prevent the former vice president from getting the 270 votes at least your victory must be official.

Few believe that you can achieve this, as you would need at least three states to change your results. And the difference in votes is huge enough to feed hope. To put it in context, a recount was ordered in 2016 in Wisconsin, a state that Trump won with more than 20,000 votes – the request was not from Hillary Clinton, who accepted defeat the next day. But the result stole only 300 votes.

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In 2000, when Al Gore asked for a recount in Florida, the new sum reduced George W. Bush’s lead from 1,700 votes to about 500.

In the present case, Biden gets more than 11,000 votes from Trump in Georgia, 17,000 in Arizona, 35,000 in Nevada and 45,000 in Pennsylvania. And, once again, the president needs the bills to give him at least three.

But the count is not his only path. And this is where the famous constituency comes into play. States have until December 8 to settle accounts, resolve complaints and provide official results. From that date, it is called a “safe harbor” in the United States (safe harbor).

Once delivered, the state governor appoints the winning party’s list of constituency members and forwards it to the state congress. For example, in Pennsylvania, where Biden won, his party puts the 20 members who then go to the Electoral College to cast their vote in favor of their candidate.

That constituency meets on December 14 in every state. But it is the state congresses that take that list and send it to the National Congress, where the final count is made.

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And this is where problems can arise. To continue with the Pennsylvania case, the Republican Party controls the Legislature in this state. And it could unilaterally decide not to accept that list and send a new one composed by Trumpists, stating that the election is still under discussion in the courts. Or, just don’t send any lists using the same excuse to stop Biden from adding the 270 votes.

If something of this caliber were to happen and the election result was hanging in the air, then it would be the House of Representatives to elect the president and the Senate the vice president. Since the Republican Party controls more state delegations in the lower house, it would give Trump victory and the Senate, if he remains in the hands of this party, will appoint Mike Pence.

It is a scenario that has occurred only once in history, almost 200 years ago. And that would cause a crisis never seen before, as Congress would interfere with the will of the voters who chose Biden. But it is something Republicans are seriously considering.

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“This is a reminder to Republican state lawmakers. You decide which members to choose for the Electoral College,” Donald Trump Jr., the president’s son, said in trill last week.

And Lindsey Graham, Senator of Georgia and Chair of the Judiciary Committee, He didn’t rule it out after pointing out that all options should be on the table.

According to Rebecca Green, professor of law at William Mary University, the uncertainty that exists is based precisely on a tremendously complex electoral system which is full of gaps never filled before because it was not necessary.

“The system is the same that existed more than 200 years ago, when the realities were different. And since there was no situation like the present one, those gaps depend on the interpretation given to the Constitution and the electoral laws. It is therefore likely that the courts will end up being appeals to resolve conflicts “, anota Green.

And that’s what keeps Democrats up late. In this party, no one forgets that it was a court divided along the party lines (5 to 4) that gave Bush the victory in 2000.

That year, Florida announced that the Republican had won the state, but with only 1,700 votes. But the narrow margin forced an automatic count given the laws in this state. That first count brought the difference to 500 votes. FORSomething that by law allowed Gore to request a new sum, but this time manual.

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When they were in that trial, the Florida Secretary of State, who was a Republican, decided to suspend the recount because, according to it, many counties would not be able to complete their work within the seven days of grace provided by law and certified that Bush had won. , despite the fact that the count was not finished.

The speed of that recount, however, was affected by multiple obstacles posed by the Republicans. Between them, and this was a very famous incident, of citizens of this party who forcibly take one of the polling stations to prevent the recount.

Gore appealed the decision, which ended up going to the Supreme Court. But when this highest instance took the case, it was only 24 hours before the so-called “safe harbor” arrived, when by law they must certify the results of the elections. And he determined, therefore, that the recount should be concluded and whoever was in advantage at that moment won. I mean, Bush.

Gore had other legal alternatives to move forward – including some that Trump now considers -, but at that moment he decided to abandon his offer and admitted defeat.

The current case is a little different, because Biden is leading the results in all states where there will be counts and with much higher numbers than those disputed in Florida.

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That is, if the Supreme Court decided to step in and suspend the recount, it is very likely that this would only confirm his victory.

But congresses and state governorates where the Republicans have the majority they could interpret the same situation to conclude that the results are not final and, therefore, the winner cannot be certified or the constituency members who would correspond to Biden can be nominated.

It would be explosive. But it is a possibility that haunts and has many with chills.

SERGIO GÓMEZ MASERI
Correspondent EL TIEMPO
WASHINGTON
On Twitter: @ sergom68

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