United Kingdom: SRF correspondent Henriette Engbersen on Brexit.

SRF correspondent on the Brexit dispute: "Mom threw beer coats to her daughter"

After the failure of Theresa May's agreement, Britain slipped deeper into the crisis. The SRF correspondent, Henriette Engbersen, speaks in an interview about the mood in the country, on the Brexit ditch in the British families and on why he made his first bet of money.

Mrs. Engbersen, Theresa Mays Brexit dealt with the failed EU yesterday in parliament. How do you perceive mood in the United Kingdom?
Henriette Engbersen: I would say that there is not "a state of mind". Depending on your attitude towards Brexit, people are in a different mood. Yesterday I followed the vote in Parliament. There were on the one hand the protesters who are for a hard Brexit and therefore refuse the May agreement. On the other hand, there were protesters calling for a second referendum and a stay of Britain in the EU. In announcing the result they both rejoiced. Because they hope to have taken a step forward towards their – completely different – goals.

For the UK economy, the agreement no in May means continuing insecurity. How do entrepreneurs react?
In the economy you are very worried. Last Friday I was with a transport company that owns about 70 trucks. Like many others, he is afraid of a no-deal Brexit. He is afraid of entering financial difficulties. Individual customers have already jumped out already. A company that had its goods transported from Britain to the EU by its drivers set up a hub in Belgium in the face of an uncertain Brexit situation. If more customers jump out, they will have to fire drivers.

Two and a half years after the vote and only ten weeks before the departure date, March 29, 2019, politicians do not have a majority plan for a Brexit. How does the population behave with this situation?
The frustration during the Brexit is so far widespread. The British are furious because politics has failed to manage the whole process in an orderly manner. The government has lost a lot of trust – many people simply do not believe it anymore.

The United Kingdom is currently described as a divided country. How does this present itself in everyday life?
In fact, the discussion on Brexit sometimes leads to quarrels between friends and family. I recently spoke with a young woman who is in favor of a second referendum and wants to stay in the EU. His mother is for Brexit. The woman told me how she quarreled with her mother in a pub so violently that her mother threw her several coasters. But the two fields do not touch each other so directly.

Why not?
Similar to what is happening in Switzerland, political opinions always separate geographically from each other. In simple terms, in London, for example, Brexit opponents are clearly in the majority, while supporters dominate in the country.

In Scotland and Northern Ireland, a majority voted against Brexit in 2016, but was put in the minority by the votes of England and Wales. Does the United Kingdom threaten to disintegrate into a disorderly Brexit?
I think this scenario is quite alarmist. Undoubtedly, if the Brexit fails in a way that requires very distant relations with the EU, the desire for a second independence referendum will grow in Scotland. Many Scots love Brussels more than Westminster. But it is a long way to go before Scotland can become independent.

What is the situation in Northern Ireland?
If the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland turns into a "hard" external border of the EU after a Brexit, it could effectively lead to individual skirmishes and conflicts.

Why?
For Northern-Irish Catholic-Republican, who dreams of a united Ireland, the "soft" border with Ireland was an important aspect of the 1998 peace agreement. Thanks to the invisible de facto border with Ireland, they felt strengthened in their Irish identity, even if not as citizens and residents of the United Kingdom of Northern Ireland remained. If a difficult limit is restored, for example, damage to surveillance cameras and customs stations can not be ruled out. But the speech of a threatening explosion of the civil war, I think very exaggerated.

You started your London office in the spring of 2017. Two years later, Britain is leaving the country without a majority agreement with the EU. Have you ever imagined such a development?
I think you noticed from the beginning that Brexit has some knots that will be difficult to solve: Northern Ireland, free trade, free movement and more. For a while I thought, "It can not get out well." But at the same time I thought for a long time that it could somehow go anyway. But the numerous contradictions of Brexit have become clearer, the longer the more clearly. And this led to the political hurricane in which the country is currently located.

The contradictions mentioned were part of the Brexit campaign: they promised more sovereignty, economic benefits and a non-polluted relationship with the EU. These promises were never redeemable?
Undoubtedly intelligent people, like former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson, adhere to certain campaign declarations to date: they promise – to put it bluntly – that milk and honey will flow. In part, economic facts are simply denied: free trade with countries such as Australia or New Zealand is promoted as an alternative to trade with the EU, although it is not nearly the same. I think it's shocking, but maybe it's the consequence of the lack of a direct democratic tradition in Britain.

What do you mean by this?
Of course, even in Switzerland, we sometimes accuse politicians of going too far in the run-off with their statements. But with us every politician knows: in three months there will be the next vote. If my accusations were too audacious, credibility suffers and could cost votes the next time. Popular referendums are extremely rare in the United Kingdom. Since the years & # 39; there have been only three referendums nationwide, others still in the individual parts of the country. In terms of number, this is not a comparison with the frequency of votes in Switzerland. Perhaps some politicians felt less committed to the truth in the electoral campaign.

What do you think is the most likely series of events in the UK in the coming weeks?
The vote of no confidence tonight will probably survive Theresa May. Therefore, immediate elections are not forthcoming. How – and if – Brexit will take place, there is no agreement between the meteorologists. Someone once told me: "There are unlikely options, but one will come".

Which one do you expect personally?
The majority of the Parliament does not want unregulated Brexit. Therefore, I expect May to postpone the withdrawal date in consultation with the EU. Incidentally, I recently bet on this scenario. I've never done it before. If it happened, I would only have 25 pounds – with a £ 20 bet. In the controversial United Kingdom, this low share is a strong sign that many Britons also rely on this scenario.