Turkey: Erdogan reacts to the outcome of the US elections with an offensive charm

Turkish President Recep Tyyip Erdogan is likely to have swallowed hard after Donald Trump’s electoral defeat. But now the shock seems to have been overcome and is going on the charm offensive.

Among the biggest losers of Joe Bidens Victory in American presidential election belongs to the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He might also expect a close relationship Donald Trump which allowed him to get away with almost any violation of the rules: ethnic cleansing in Syria, support for Islamic terrorist groups or the purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system.

It’s over. Even more: Joe Biden made clear statements about his future policy in Turkey as a presidential candidate. His team said he would oppose Turkish behavior and violate NATO’s Turkish international law and obligations. He will work with Greece to stabilize the Eastern Mediterranean and has always condemned the Turkish occupation of Cyprus.

Erdogan begins to redesign his cabinet

The Turkish president must US sanctions fear – not only for the acquisition of the S-400, but also in the New York trial for the violation of US sanctions on Iran by the Turkish state-run Halkbank. Discrimination against the Kurds will attract even more attention under Biden than under Trump.

Given the change of power in the White House, Erdogan has begun to move chairs. How Joe Bidens Victory, Erdogan has decided to remove the head of the central bank Murat Uysal. As a former vice president of Halkbank, Uysal was involved in Iran’s dark affairs and was seen as an ally of Erdogan’s finance minister and son-in-law Berat Albayrak, who resigned the next day.

Erdogan’s son-in-law is a close friend of Jared Kushner

Earlier this month Erdogan thought his country was still in “economic warfare” with the West, but suddenly he left financial policy to pro-investor experts. New central bank chief Naci Agbal sharply raised the key rate on Thursday, from 10.25 to 15%. The exchange rate of the local currency, the lira, increased by nearly two percent against the dollar. Erdogan is sternly opposed to rate hikes, but can now blame the central bank for the unpopular measure.

The importance of the resignation of Erdogan’s son-in-law can hardly be overstated. Because not only was he responsible for the desolate economic situation, but also acted as Erdogan’s unofficial channel of communication with the White House, as he had a close friendship with Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner Used.

Will Erdogan become a reformer? The opposition scoffs

To open a new chapter in Turkish-American relations, leave Erdogan his defense minister Hulusi Akar Washington has signaled that “any concerns” about the S-400 missiles could be renegotiated. The problem of the Halkbank process is even more difficult; if convicted, Turkey faces double-digit billions in fines. Erdogan cannot expect procedural delay, but he could hope for leniency for good behavior. Erdogan’s startling announcement of a “new period of reform in the economy and justice” on November 11, the same day as Akar’s commentary on the S-400, should serve this purpose.

“In 24 hours, Erdogan has become a reformer and defender of human rights and the rule of law,” mocked Turkish opposition news platform Arti Gercek. But the autocrat has always proved to be agile when it seemed necessary.

How serious is Erdogan?

The delicate Kurdish problem could also shift again. Immediately after Albayrak’s resignation, Erdogan promoted the former interior minister Efkan Ala to the AKP Central Committee and the Vice-President of the Party for External Relations. Prior to his resignation in 2016, Ala was considered a key figure in the peace process with the banned Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) between 2013 and 2015. His political return could be a signal for Erdogan to return to reforms in the Kurdish regions.

It is still too early to assess how serious it is Erdogan its offensive charm means. Because nothing changes in practice. The Turkish judiciary continues to arrest members of the pro-Kurdish opposition HDP party and critical journalists. Foreign policy set Erdogan continues its expansive course, sends the Turkish troops forward Azerbaijan and announces new natural gas wells in Cypriot and Greek waters – not exactly a “restoration” of relations with the West.

Rubriklistenbild: © Evan Vucci