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Externally, everything seems to be in place: the American economy is "the largest, strongest and most powerful economy in the world", boasted Donald Trump last Thursday. Behind the scenes, however, there is concern: the president is "uneasy" due to the economic prospects, a Trump adviser told the "Washington Post".
It is by no means certain that the American economy is heading towards a recession. Low unemployment and consumer buying could prevent a recession. But US economic experts are experiencing signs of an economic slowdown or even the end of the longest recovery in US history in the recent stock market and bond market turmoil. Sliding the economy into a recession would not be good for Donald Trump: no president since William McKinley was re-elected in the midst of a recession in 1900.
Trump's best argument for re-election in 2020 is the good economic situation. If it gets worse, it could be tight for the incumbent. As a precaution, he is already looking for guilty parties and finds them at the head of the central bank Jerome Powell and the liberal media. Although he named Powell himself, the banker became a target for Trump. He accuses him of raising interest rates too quickly in 2018. Internally, Trump confronts the Fed president with a clumsy golfer.
The family image of the enemy
Furthermore, the president is looking for a familiar enemy image: "The false media are doing everything they can to ruin the economy, because they are convinced that it is bad for me and my re-election," he tweeted Trump last week. The fact that the liberal media want to call a recession to reduce the electoral chances of the hated Republican president is considered by Trump's journalist friends as agreed.
Conservative radio talker Rush Limbaugh has accused the liberal media of trying to influence the 2020 presidential election with "Fake Economic News". Fox Business News, the backbone of Trump's Fox News home channel, said it was similar: "The left-wing media speak ill of the stock market and Trump's economy," said moderator Lou Dobbs, a confidant near the president.
The Trump trio does not have the best reputation
Dobbs, Limbaugh and other friends of Trump don't want to believe that Trump's trade war with China and its perennial threats of new tariffs could damage the world economy and, ultimately, the US economy. Especially since Trump's economic team to economic advisor Larry Kudlow, trade commissioner Peter Navarro and finance minister Steven Mnuchin don't just count the first set. "The grotesque predictions and the economic illiteracy" have broken their credibility, states former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers of the president's economic advisers.
Meanwhile, Trump digs behind the claim that only his 2016 election prevented a severe recession – and only his re-election will save Americans from a serious economic crisis. "You have no choice but to vote for me, because otherwise your pension funds will go broke and everything will be ruined," Trump predicted at a rally in New Hampshire on Thursday. "Whether you love me or hate me, you have to vote for me," the president continued.
Created: 17.08.2019, 20:05 clock
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