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Although countries such as Brazil and the United States and OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro have openly endorsed the decision of the National Assembly of Venezuela (AN) and its president, Juan Guaidó, to "assume the powers to form a transitional government ", the regime of Nicolás Maduro supports the theory that from the outside tries to undermine the sovereignty of his country and seems indifferent to what analysts have considered a challenge.
Just this Tuesday, the National Assembly declared Maduro "usurper of the presidency" and approved the amnesty for civilians and military to "collaborate in the restoration of constitutional order".
The declaration came two days after Guaidó was briefly detained by members of the Bolivarian Intelligence Service (Sebin) on Sunday, while he was going to the state of Vargas for an open town hall. While Maduro and his government have moved away from the incident and promised to punish the betrayal of officials with an iron hand, the president of parliament has said that his brief detention shows the regime's "desperation", who has labeled the national assembly as "immature".
However, this position of the government of Maduro seems "mild", if one considers that in the past its government has punished the leaders of the opposition who have challenged it, as the leader of the popular Volpato Leopoldo López, who was convicted at 13 years and nine months in prison for the protests of 2014, and the former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles, who was disqualified for 15 years from a public position.
The question is why Guaidó did not have the same fate. Analysts estimate that the position of the Maduro regime has to do with a political strategy that allows it to appear as an internal order in Venezuela.
Maduro became president for his second term on January 10th before the Supreme Court of Justice.
Carlos Garcia Rawlins / Reuters
"Maduro is taking care of himself in the international arena, for example, the statement by the Lima group (which describes its government as" illegitimate ") directly affects the intention of the regime and seeks to minimize this that is happening "to finish his second term. , Which lasts until 2025, said EL TIEMPO Ronal Rodríguez, researcher at the Venezuela Observatory of the Universidad del Rosario.
"In this logic, he takes care of the status quo & # 39; and, following the strategy he used (the former president Hugo), Chavez leaves, dilate the moments of increased effervescence of the opposition until it runs out, "added the analyst.
However, the possibility that Guaido has the same fate as the other opposition leaders and that he is imprisoned is still on the table. From the same regime, the minister of prison services, Iris Varela, announced that he had a cell ready for the president of the National Assembly.
In addition, some members of the National Constitutional Assembly (ANC) in power have raised the option to close the parliament. But this alternative could play against Maduro himself, because AN is the only institution democratically elected internationally recognized.
Guaidó bets on mobilization as an element of internal pressure
Rodriguez assures that the January 23rd mobilization called by Guaidó, the day commemorating the fall of dictator Marcos Pérez Jiménez, will be the key to the opposition, to the president of the AN and to what the transition could be in Venezuela. "Guaidó bets on mobilization as an element of internal pressure because, finally, this is what makes dictators fall and the opposition is completely disconnected from last year," says Rodríguez.
Precisely for that day, Chavismo called a march to "remind the world that Venezuela is no longer betrayed," said ANC president Diosdado Cabello at a press conference.
International editorial office
THE WEATHER
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