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The European Commission says in a communication to the European Parliament and the European Council that lifting the restrictions in December, during the winter holidays, would lead to a further increase in the number of coronavirus cases and, implicitly, hospitalizations. The report also states that 40 days can pass between the adoption of restrictive measures and the emergence of measurable results, much longer than the two-week period taken as a general benchmark.
The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (EDCD) stressed that authorities need to take into account that 40 days can elapse between the implementation of measures and the measurable effects of the measures taken, much longer than the incubation period of the infection, which can be up to two weeks. This is explained by the fact that it takes more time for the change in public behavior caused by the restrictions to take effect, even taking into account the delays that may occur in reporting.
While the rate of infections at the European level is starting to stabilize, albeit at the highest level, the lifting of restrictions to prevent new outbreaks needs to be considered, the EC communication says. .
The report’s projections predict that if EU countries lift restrictions on 7 December, hospitalization rates could start to rise around 24 December. (see table below).
In another scenario, if EU countries lift restrictions on 21 December, the number of hospitalizations caused by COVID could start increasing from the first week of January 2021. (see table below).
Simulations show that, in the current epidemiological context in the EU, it is difficult to justify lifting restrictions, the report also says.
Infection testing and monitoring
The European Commission also recommends ensuring sufficient capacity for free population tests, with results being released within a maximum of 24 hours.
In addition to RT-PCR tests, the Commission also recommends the use of rapid antigen tests, where appropriate.
In addition to testing, the EC also recommends the use of mobile contact tracking applications to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.
The full report can be viewed here:
Covid-19_stayingsafe
Publisher: Bogdan Pacurar
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