The future of Turkish-American relations

İLKER BAŞBUĞ / 26th Chief of General Staff

The first is that Biden starts driving at the age of 78. Biden will be the oldest to initiate the president.

Second, Biden was elected with the most votes among presidents to date. Biden won the votes of 79 million voters.

Third, Biden will begin the presidency in perhaps the most difficult conditions since President F. Roosevelt.

The first conclusion to be drawn from these properties could be:

Democratic Party members preferred the eldest of those who emerged as Democratic Party presidential candidates, including younger candidates.

This decision by the Democrats shows that “experience” takes priority in the face of the challenges facing the United States.

Born in 1942, Biden served as a senator for 36 years in the United States Senate and as Obama’s vice president for 8 years. With his 44 years of political experience, he was probably the person best suited to today’s conditions.

Looking at Biden’s political career, his qualities can be expressed as follows:

He is a politically obvious politician. So it is neither directly to the left nor directly to the right.

It supports the existence of strong institutions and institutions in politics.

Even in the most difficult conditions, try to heed the advice of “experts”, listen to the parties and make decisions with a “consensus”.

He thinks “alliances” are important in foreign policy.

Nobody should expect revolutionary transformations from Biden.

They should find solutions

What are the main problems that Biden has to find solutions to with these characteristics?

The first issue Biden was interested in before coming to the White House was the fight against Covid-19. The United States has failed to fight Covid-19. By the way, an interesting point is that if the world hadn’t experienced the Covid-19 problem, Trump would have easily won the election.

The second issue that Biden should face when he enters the Oval Office will obviously be the economic situation. In 2020, the US economic growth rate is expected to be below 4.6%. So don’t get smaller. Worse still, the Chinese economy is estimated to grow 1.8% over the same period.

The main problem that Biden will have to face is that US society is politically “divided”, that is, “polarized”, in a way that is not in its history. Biden’s work on this is really difficult.

Trump has been very successful in dividing American society with his “polarizing” and “populist” policies.

The difference of the two choices

When the 2016 election results are compared with the 2020 election results, the following result emerges:

There has been a significant increase in the number of voters participating in the 2020 elections.

Trump has not suffered a major loss of votes since the 2016 election. Trump managed to win 73 million voter votes.

Trump’s polarizing policy is based on “white supremacy” and “racist approaches”.

Trump managed to get the votes of 57% of white voters in this election. Their vote among all men increased by 2.2 million from 2016. Trump also increased the support he received from the rich. The most interesting and incomprehensible point is that Trump’s support for “racist” and openly advocating “white supremacy” approaches has also increased the rate of votes he received from African Americans, Asian Americans and Latinos. It is clear that Trump, who could not get many votes from young voters and college graduates, did not miss this election too much despite everything and received serious support from the majority of US society.

Under these conditions, it does not seem easy for Biden to reduce this division and polarization in society.

BIDEN FOREIGN POLICY LINE

The main lines Biden will follow in his foreign policy implementation are likely to be the following:

China will continue to be the top issue in US foreign policy. In balancing China, the US will try to focus on relations with India. The South China Sea will be the focal point of the security relations between the United States and China.

Biden will work closely with Japan in its anti-China policy.

China was pleased with Biden’s selection. China was concerned that Trump would lead China and Taiwan into a wartime environment with sudden political upheaval. Biden, on the other hand, is believed to be alert and predictable.

Under Biden’s administration, US-EU relations will be in a more positive mood. The US is expected to return to the Paris climate agreement, support the World Trade Organization and rethink relations with Iran. It will not be easy to control the production of Iranian nuclear weapons. Presumably, Biden will try to continue negotiations with Iran and reach an agreement by lifting some sanctions on Iran.

Biden will ask member states to spend two percent of their GDP on defense while implementing policies in support of NATO. Biden should not be expected to retake the US Embassy in Israel from Jerusalem to Tel Aviv.

As for US-Russia relations, it can be said that relations will be cold and distant compared to the Trump era.

The presidents avoid taking a stand against Turkey

What will Turkish-American relations be like in the Biden era?

First of all, some points should be well understood:

First, given the history of US-Turkey relations, Turkey is the source of the problems encountered with the US, the US Congress seems to be rather than the US president.

presidents who must act within the framework of the national interests of the United States avoid a position against Turkey as much as possible. Because Turkey is a country that has strategic value due to its geography. No president does not want to bear the cost of Turkey’s loss. The most vivid example of the process can be seen on the arms embargo imposed on Turkey after the peace operation in Cyprus.

September 19, 1974, in the United States Senate and in the House of Representatives on September 24 it was decided “Sold arms to Turkey and saw the freezing of military credit”. President Ford vetoed this decision made by Congress on October 15.

On October 16, the House of Representatives accepted the arms embargo this time. President Ford also vetoed this decision. However, Congress was determined. This time, Congress has decided that the president should initiate an arms embargo by February 5. Unable to resist Congress, President Ford approved and promulgated these decisions on December 30, 1974. And the arms embargo imposed on Turkey remained in effect until September 26, 1978.

The second point of opposition to Turkey in 1974, after almost making it to the United States Congress, is the most serious. It is true that the members of the Democratic Party were more distant from Turkey. Senator Biden’s Turkey is also known to play an important role in some preparations against the decision. The Democrats maintained a majority in the House of Representatives with 222 representatives. In the Senate, it has been seen that Democrats currently have 48 seats and Republicans have 50 seats. Elections for two seats in the state of Georgia will be held in January. If the Democrats win both seats, this would not be good news for Turkey. Because Trump, the representatives of the decisions taken against Turkey, had stopped in the Senate where the Republicans are the majority.

At the start of the priority issues that could cause problems in the coming period in Turkish-American relations, Turkey bought from the Russian S-400 to the activated, east of the Euphrates in Syria consisting of the YPG / PYD structuring linked to the PKK of financial support and political for the United States. and the conclusion of the ongoing trial in the US court regarding Halk Bank.

Two reasons for opposition

The United States Congress has a very clear line on the S-400. Trump, Turkey F-35 is trying to control and reduce Congress response away from the project. There are two reasons why the United States specifically opposes the S-400 issue in Congress:

The first reason is to demolish the influence of Russia especially on Europe. Russian companies have been blacklisted. The sanctions called CAATSA are applied against the countries that buy from these companies. The US Congress has asked the Trump president to apply some sanctions against Turkey. Trump left implementing sanctions using his presidential power at a later date.

The second reason is that if the S-400s are activated and used, the F-35’s “invisibility” problem can be tested. Already this was the main reason for the removal of Turkey’s F-35 project.

The problem of the S-400 will be one of the priority problems that Biden will have to address with Turkey. Turkey S-400 due to sanctions if similar sanctions are applied from Russia’s advanced weapons systems area to India, Egypt, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Qatar should be enforced. This is an advantage for Turkey.

It is not known what the US judiciary will decide on the People’s Bank. If the court decides to impose a sanction, the size of the sanction will be determined by the Treasury. It should be known that the Turkish economy, already fragile in any case, will be seriously affected by this decision. Considering that the Turkish economy will shrink by 3.9 percent this year, the gravity of the problem is better understood.

The issue that will affect Turkish-American relations not only today but also in the medium and long term is the political, administrative and security structure established by the YPG / PYD linked to the PKK in northern Syria. Consists of a case for Turkey “survival” is the problem. The Biden administration is expected to continue the policy implemented over the Trump period regarding YPG / PYD. In this case Turkey, this problem is caused by a “survival” of the reason why it did not see it and Syria as a problem in northern Syria YPG / PYD format is on the structuring must demonstrate clear determination and it should be said .

Consequently, the priority issues that will determine the future of Turkish-American relations in the near future will be the decision of the US court on the developments regarding the S-400 and Halk Bank issue.

The main problem is the structuring of the YPG / PYD in Syria.

Antony Blink

Political views and foreign policy implementation of Biden and Antony Blinken are known, likely to be brought to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. There are problems that think differently with Turkey. But the important point, Biden and Blinken, is that Turkey is good that they are aware of the importance and Turkey.

Event at the congress before

Therefore, Turkey must first improve the efficiency of operations on Congress to reduce the Turkish opposition formed by the United States Congress. Thus, the pressure that Congress will put on the president can be reduced. Members of the United States Congress in Turkey’s opinion and the justification for the open tale against Turkey will be decisions that jeopardize the Turkey received, but you will find a way out of Turkey, but the problems and damage they have faced the United States that lost Turkey a lot more and cannot be compensated should it be revealed to be of size.

Meanwhile, the increase in the number of countries where friendly relations are obviously strengthened by Turkey also the hand of Turkey.