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A comment by Shama Tobin for the American thinker that I translated for Today’s Event readers.
Around 10.30pm East Coast Time, during election night, a friend who lives on the East Coast sent me a message on WhatsApp:
“You see, Trump is now leading North Carolina and the gap is widening. Same thing is happening in Ohio. Sometimes I switch to CNN, sometimes to Fox. The CNN guys are starting to get depressed.”
In response, I sent him a photo of a bottle of red wine with the words “Trump” and the words “I’m ready”. A re-run on election night 2016 is announced.
But at 11:20 pm, Fox News made a shock announcement announcing Joe Biden’s victory in Arizona. It didn’t matter that 900,000 votes were still countless, including postal votes.
Other media outlets, including the New York Times and CNN, declared the Arizona election race closed just two days later.
The loss of Arizona meant Trump now had to get 22 votes from the big voters, instead of just 11, to secure re-election.
Now Pennsylvania (20) or Michigan (16) had to win along with Wisconsin (10) or Nevada (6). But even that still seemed feasible.
The premature announcement of the closing of the game in Arizona had the effect of reviving hope in the field.
Unsurprisingly, twenty minutes later, at 11:40 pm, Biden appeared in public, addressing supporters: “We think one of the media outlets suggested winning Arizona, we remain confident about Arizona – it’s a game changer.” .
It was not an impromptu statement, but premeditated. Arizona was a turning point, as Biden says, after Fox’s premature statement.
Trying to find an explanation for choosing the news company, Bret Baier asked Arnon Mishkin, the head of Fox News’ presidential election decision team, if he was 100% convinced he made the right decision.
Mishkin replied coldly, “Absolutely. I got it after a half-hour discussion if it was time. Because it had long been clear that the former vice president was in charge of Arizona and that he would most likely win the state. It was in the “probably but still undecided” situation for nearly an hour. In the end, I made the decision. “
There are two problems with this decision. First, do not declare the race closed while it is still within the limits of statistical probability. The phrase “very likely” means that the odds are less than 100%. To declare the race won by one candidate when it is mathematically impossible for the other candidate to reach it
Second, when Mishkin and his team decided whether or not to declare Biden’s win, the percentage of votes counted was about 60%. Arizona is not a solid blue (democratic) state. Trump won this state in 2016 with a huge 3.5% difference.
Prior to 2010, Arizona voted for Republican candidates in nine of the previous ten elections.
And in 2018, the state elected a Republican governor with a whopping 14% difference.
All indications were that Trump would win Arizona again.
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