The agreement for Brexit was even hit. And now? The five scenarios (yet) on the table – Observer

"British politics of 2018: go home, you're drunk." The quote is by Kevin Schofield, publisher of PoliticsHome. It was written in December last year on Twitter, shortly after learning that the Labor Party was advancing with a motion of censure against Theresa May, the British prime minister.

Go home 2018 British politics, you're drunk. https://t.co/EEFYhgGuEI

– Kevin Schofield (@PolhomeEditor) December 17, 2018

At that time, May did not fall but it's good to see that the idea did not leave Jeremy Corbyn's head. Less than a month away, here is the document placed on the table, with a substantial difference – this time the motion will be voted, since it was May itself to launch the challenge, after suffering the most overwhelming defeat ever of a government in office in the British parliament. "This is a historic decision", had announced the prime minister in his last joint declaration before the vote. Nor could he foresee how historical it would be.

The 202 votes in favor of the agreement closed with the European Union were very, very far from the 432 that hit him. Perhaps he needed it, but above all he needed the allies not to expand. The final reports were even worse: deputies of the party itself voted against, in such a historic moment.

"Under normal circumstances, a prime minister could resign after suffering such humiliation in one of his main policies," said Robert Peston, editor of the ITV policy at a glance. "But these are not normal times and Theresa May is not a normal prime minister."

What followed still occurred that Theresa May had not swallowed the defeat. It is true that it was the prime minister who launched the challenge, exposing himself to a motion of censure, but no one wasted time. The Labor Party has gone ahead, the opposition has supported and here it is: on Wednesday British parliamentarians will issue the motion of censure proposed by Corbyn. The probability that the government falls is still low: not only does May have a majority in Parliament, but the allies of the DUP and some of its internal rivals (such as Boris Johnson or Jacob Rees-Mogg) have already announced that they will support it. But, as we have just explained, the Brexit madness has brought the United Kingdom to unusual times, so this possibility must be considered. Which brings us to the first possible scenario after Tuesday's example.

Imagining this Tories more in favor of a hard Brexit, like Boris Johnson or Jacob Rees-Mogg, are not telling the truth and, in fact, hate May enough to risk facing a Labor government, there may be a chance that the knives will be sharpened at this time and the prime minister will soon be inverted.

If this is the case, it becomes almost impossible to predict the next steps and the rest of this article will become almost irrelevant. Or, passing the microphone to the Minister of the Environment, who chose to wear the armor and embody the spirit of Game of Thrones, "In the words of Jon Snow: the winter is coming". It was Michael Gove's prediction on Tuesday morning, if the deal was hit – that it came, as we know, to happen.

If this happens and May is even overturned, the only certainty is this: a period of 14 working days is then started for the presentation of a new government which can be trusted by Parliament. If conservatives fail to find a quick alternative in May, which has a consensus in two weeks, early elections are scheduled.

However, these can only happen in 25 working days. This means that, by adding the 14 days of the first 25-day deadline, the British could only return to the polls at the beginning of March – less than a month before the official exit date from the EU, March 29th. With more uncertainty that gas is being poured into the Brexit field, it would be all open. Parliament can decide to take control of the situation and propose measures such as suspension of Article 50 to minimize damage.

But, after all, the previous option is unlikely. And therefore it is necessary to consider a number of other scenarios. If he survives the motion of censorship, the prime minister should go to Brussels in another attempt to obtain concessions from European leaders. But, as European leaders have already reinforced several times, the The European Commission has no desire to change a point that is an agreement that it considers.

As far as Europe is concerned, clarification is needed. European sources have already advanced by several British journalists who would accept to reopen negotiations only if Theresa May had a clear sense of a proposal that would have brought a consensus to the British parliament.

Of course, if the renegotiations fail again, May can always go back to London and tell the deputies, once again, "this agreement or no agreement" – and ask them to vote again. The idea, writes Sky News, would be "questioned", "but the prime minister would have hopes that would scare MPs with the prospect of a deadline agreement, while the clock moves towards the day of departure, March 29. "The problem is that continuing to do things the same way and expecting a different outcome is, as the saying goes," madness ". And, therefore, the it was more certain that the agreement would once again be disconcerted by the deputies.

Imagine then that, in desperation, Theresa May decides to do what she has so far rejected: request a suspension of Article 50 from the EU, thereby blocking the countdown until March 29th.

To begin with, the proposal would run counter to everything the prime minister has underlined in recent months, which is to say that there is no doubt that the United Kingdom will leave the EU at the end of March. But May would not be the first policy to double the column on matters of principle; and Brexit is anything but normal.

Therefore, the green light to the European Member States would be lacking. According to what he told journalists in Brussels, the most likely is that it occurs only in a situation where a change in substance is visible (elections, a new referendum or a new proposal). Yet in recent days there seems to have been more openness to this proposal, with European sources telling the Guardian that there is the possibility of extending the negotiations by July.

Officially, the EU is waiting to see. "Let's see how May interprets this result: calmly and without panic we have to start preparing for all options," chief negotiator Michel Barnier said in a meeting with his colleagues, according to Politico, after the proposal was released in London .

But in public, the president of the European Council, Donald Tusk himself, left a disconcerting statement on the air that could be interpreted as a suggestion that article 50 be deleted: "If an agreement is impossible and nobody wants an agreement, who will have the courage to finally say what is the only positive solution?"churches. In other words, who will dare to launch the "Cancel Brexit" order.

If an agreement is impossible and nobody wants an agreement, who will finally have the courage to say what is the only positive solution?

– Donald Tusk (@eucopresident) January 15, 2019

In the midst of so much progress and withdrawal and so many changes to make everything equal, a fourth scenario appears on the horizon – and gains more and more strength. For the time being, the United Kingdom will actually start on 29 March 2019. And if there is no solution, it will leave without any agreement.

It is the dream of many hard Brexiteers, who would like to see this release? & rsquo; raw & # 39 ;. "It will not be a nightmare", Jacob Rees-Mogg, one of the most radical conservatives on the Brexit issue on Sky News. And May can decide that with tied hands and feet, he has no choice but to do allowing time to run and risking this solution that is loaded with greater uncertainty than any other.

Everything that had been exchanged until then would have fallen to the ground. For example, the transition period, planned to negotiate specific agreements by area and by country, would disappear. From one day to the next, the United Kingdom would become a strange country, not connected (commercial, customs or legal, for example) with all other Member States, jeopardizing industries, tourism, immigration. … an infinite list

Of course, if she decides to do so, she may face another rebellion in Parliament. Not only Tories who defended the maintenance of the EU would have rejected this scenario, as all opposition would have tried to find an alternative.

One of the previous scenarios could therefore induce the Parliament to take the initiative, but any solution will be valid only if it can gather a majority. One of the possibilities is to order the government to suspend Article 50 – which raises all the problems already mentioned above and which will hardly meet with consent in the House. Another is to find a plan B good enough to present in Brussels.

This is the idea of ​​some members, Tories, who defended creation of the so-called Norway + model. In other words, the negotiation of an agreement with the EU similar to what Europe has with the EFTA countries (including Norway), maintaining a customs union with Europeans – which would solve the problem on the border with Northern Ireland. The problem? It is highly unlikely that the majority will gather around such a model, which, for the most part Brexiteers, is seen as a retreat through the mandate line given by the referendum to exit the single European market.

So we come to the last alternative: that Parliament votes for the convening of a new referendum on. Both Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn have rejected this possibility for now, which makes it very difficult for it to be feasible. But over time and each person is leaning against the wall for different reasons, this can be a solution that ends up as a lifeboat for their political careers.

Inside the Labor, pressure is growing, led by Rep. Chuka Umunna, so that Corbyn grasps this proposal and presents it as his – and, in the aftermath of May's lead, shadow minister Rebecca Long-Bailey is pushed up to suppose that "all the options are on the table".

"It's a weird situation – an exit without agreement or a new referendum are the two obvious options that hang over all of this, but neither the prime minister nor the opposition leader are ready to say yes to one of their ", journalist Ian Dunt said Tuesday. It is no coincidence that, 15 days after the start of a new year, Kevin Schofield's statement on British politics can already be adapted to 2019.

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