summary of the reaction of the conversation experts

As soon as major US television networks announced Joe Biden and Kamala Harris as winners of the US election on November 7, congratulations came from all over the world. Over the next few days, the newly elected president-elect began talking on the phone with the leaders of some of America’s most traditional allies, all eager to emphasize the closeness of their countries’ respective relations with the United States.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was the first to speak with Biden in a conversation that touched on COVID-19, climate change and global security. Irish taoiseach, Micheál Martin, said his call with Biden, who is of Irish descent, was a “warm conversation”, while a phone call with German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, stressed the importance of transatlantic cooperation.

Experts from around the world have analyzed the significance of the US election results on The Conversation in recent days. Here is a summary of some of the issues raised and global challenges and future opportunities for a Biden administration.

Foreign policy

As Biden’s team gets to work on the presidential transition, Donald Trump still holds the keys to the White House until January 20. Much could still happen in foreign policy during this transitional period, but beyond that, many expect a return to a foreign country. politics built on traditional alliances.

• A change of tone. A return to diplomacy will be at the forefront of the new Biden administration, according to Neta Crawford of Boston University. He writes that Biden, who hinted at a smaller military presence overseas, “could make modest cuts to the US military budget” and is likely to seek to end the war in Afghanistan and transfer troops to a regional role of anti Terrorism.

• International order. Many have expressed hope that a Biden administration will restore some semblance of “normality” to the international liberal order. Juan Luis Manfredi of the Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, is convinced that Biden will understand European sensitivity and the need to support a particular type of international order. He writes (in Spanish) that “closeness, calm and pragmatism” will be the balsam of American society under Biden’s presidency.

• Where to fit. Some have identified a debate within Biden’s camp about whether to return US foreign policy to the pre-Trump era or to reform it by forging new alliances. Frédéric Charillon and Patrick Chevallereau of the Université Clermont Auvergne suggest (in French) that the greatest difficulty of the new administration may be the absence of a clearly identifiable international system. The reluctance of some Asian countries to choose between Beijing and Washington, the growth of hybrid wars such as the conflict in Ukraine, and the “strong power” of disinformation, cloud the strategic landscape.

Pinch the points

Leaders around the world will be busy thinking about what a new Biden administration means for their region. His presidency will have ramifications for some major geopolitical theaters in the months to come.

• Brexit and the Irish border. Biden’s victory comes as negotiations between the UK and the EU on a post-Brexit trade deal reach a tipping point. Biden is adamant that an agreement must abide by the terms of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which paved the way for peace in Northern Ireland, writes Etain Tannam of Trinity College Dublin. He thinks a Biden administration “greatly increases the prospects for an EU-UK deal” and explains why the future of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland remains so crucial.

• Chinese duel. The biggest foreign policy issue Biden will have to address will be how to approach the People’s Republic of China, explains Nick Bisley of La Trobe University. While it predicts that a Biden administration will not significantly resolve the US-China trade conflict and will continue to work to limit China’s ambitions to change the regional order of Asia, “it is likely that it will try to build on some areas of common interest to improve cooperation “.

• Human rights. In Southeast Asia, where almost “every country” has human rights problems, Yohanes Sulaiman of Jenderal Achmad Yani University doubts that a Biden presidency will begin vigorously promoting a human rights agenda in the region. Part of the reason is the scale of the challenge the United States faces in winning the hearts of Southeast Asian governments in their efforts to balance China’s growing power in the region.

• The borders of Russia. Political tensions have erupted in recent months in some of Russia’s neighbors, including Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and most recently Georgia. Tracey German of King’s College London writes that while Russia and its post-Soviet neighbors are unlikely to be foreign policy priorities for the incoming Biden administration, new priorities for promoting democracy and rebuilding ties with NATO have sparked concern in the Kremlin.

Climate hope

As soon as it opens, Biden plans to rejoin the Paris climate change agreement, which Trump left, providing optimism for greater global momentum on climate action.

• Balancing act. Biden’s campaign has promised to introduce a $ 2 trillion investment plan, although this may be difficult to get through with Congress now that Senate scrutiny hangs in the balance. Richard Beardsworth and Olaf Corry of the University of Leeds argue that: “If Biden can link climate action to economic regeneration, employment, environmental justice and a proactive foreign policy with both China and Europe, he could still fulfill its agendas. “

• Feeling the heat. According to Christian Downie of the Australian National University, the Trump administration’s climate inertia has been “a boon to successive Australian governments that have cracked down on climate policies and failed to implement new ones.” He warns that Australian diplomats and businesses are likely to feel the heat over their government’s lack of climate action as soon as the Biden administration begins.

Results of the autopsy

Voting by mail continues to be counted in the United States, and control of the United States Senate still hangs in the balance ahead of a two-seat ballot in Georgia in early January. With constituency voters meeting in their respective states on December 14 in the next step towards a formal winner declaration, the focus is now shifting to why Americans voted the way they did.

• No uniform “Latin vote”. Many analysts amassed 32 million eligible American voters under the “Latino” name and expressed surprise when Latino voters in Florida helped win state for Trump. Lisa García Bedolla, of the University of California, Berkeley, analyzes how those belonging to this “ethnic, ethnic and geographic group” across the country voted, and explains why both sides need more competent campaigns since cultural point of view to reach them.

• Dynamics of fossil fuels. Before the election, it was speculated that Biden’s commitment to moving away from dependence on fossil fuels could turn off voters in states like Pennsylvania that are heavily dependent on the shale gas economy. But in his analysis of the overall results, Ryerson University’s Sibo Chen says this has not materialized, although the dynamics are more complicated when analyzed at the county level. He suggests: “Either Biden’s discourse on divesting fossil fuels hasn’t fundamentally changed the minds of voters, or it has led to greater turnout of progressive young voters.”

• Pessimism and hope. Trump received the second most votes in a U.S. election – only Biden is in first place. So what does this mean for the Republican Party? Timothy Lynch of the University of Melbourne points out five reasons conservatives should be concerned about Trump’s legacy. But he also says that Republicans have reasons for hope – including that there still seems to be a “strong Republican vote among those who feel ignored or forgotten by the Democratic Party” and that “Biden’s victory obscures how torn progressive politics is becoming.”

You can continue to follow the expert analysis of the aftermath of the US election on The Conversation here.