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Presidential election Republic of Moldova. The second round of presidential elections in the Republic of Moldova takes place on Sunday 15 November.
The candidate of the Action and Solidarity Party, Maia Sandu, will have a counter-candidate over the current president, Igor Dodon, who entered the electoral race as an independent, with the support of the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova.
In the first round, held on November 1, Maia Sandu obtained 36.16% of the votes and Igor Dodon 32.61%.
The most well-known political analysts of the Republic of Moldova commented on the prospects that the Republic of Moldova has after the presidential elections on Sunday.
Perspectives of the Republic of Moldova after the presidential elections
They analyzed the political situation both in terms of the victory obtained by the current president of the Republic of Moldova, the socialist Igor Dodon, and in terms of the success of the candidate of the Action and Solidarity Party, pro-European Maia Sandu.
Analyst Cornel Ciurea is of the opinion that regardless of the outcome of the November 15 elections, the political struggle in the Republic of Moldova will not end, but will intensify. A victory for Dodon is seen as a possibility of rapprochement with Russia and a worsening of relations with the West, while a possible victory for Maia Sandu would mean the beginning of an interinstitutional struggle. Ciurea is also considering the option that, in the event of the loss of the presidency, Dodon will consolidate the left in Parliament and reshuffle the government. Furthermore, he believes that the current leader in Chisinau could also take up the post of prime minister.
Of course, the political struggle will not end after Sunday. If Igor Dodon wins, the left pole will strengthen and the president could resort to some reshuffle or even the dissolution of Parliament, being certain that the wind is pulling in his favor. I believe that relations with Russia will improve considerably and relations with the West, with the European Union, will depend on the goodwill of the West, and we will see to what extent and how the European Union will digest this failure. “If Ms Sandu wins, we will have bipolarism for a period of time. Parliament and the government will likely be controlled by a majority reconsolidated by the Socialists. Dodon to return to the government, perhaps as prime minister, while the presidency and the Constitutional Court will be controlled by the pro-European party, we will have a sharp confrontation, each side will be supported by the West or Russia“said Cornel Ciurea.
In turn, analyst Ion Tăbîrţă believes this “Maia Sandu’s victory will not bring immediate changes“, there “it will be a signal for change”. He believes that the right-wing candidate’s assumption of the presidency will contribute to the development of relations between the Republic of Moldova and the European Union, and a possible success of Igor Dodon could mean “quite an involution” of the Republic of Moldova.
“If he stays on the left, nothing will change. On the contrary, I think we will perpetuate in that quagmire we have been in in recent years. I don’t think we can expect any development. We will rather have an involution. That corrupt and oligarchic system that was established in the Republic of Moldova in the last five years, perhaps except for a few months, during the reign of Mrs. Sandu, it will continue. (…) Another problem is how much after Igor Dodon gets closer to the Russian Federation. He will remain in this stalemate, that it is now clear that the Republic of Moldova is now directed more towards the Russian Federation than towards the European Union, but it can force a rapprochement in the direction of the Transnistrian conflict. Transnistria will be its number 1 priority in the next mandate, the which would mean a political deal like the one we had in 2003. If Maia Sandu wins, the Republic of Moldova will come out of some international oil it is in now. Maia Sandu will be looked at, in fact she is viewed favorably by the West, by Romania. Sure, he will have some bilateral visits, support, encouragement, but Maia Sandu’s victory will not bring immediate changes. Maia Sandu’s victory will only be a sign of change. We have to understand that the Republic of Moldova is a parliamentary republic and the President has some limited powers. If Maia Sandu wins, it remains a controversial Parliament, a Parliament largely dominated by the oligarchic component. Let’s not forget that this parliament was elected in 2019, when the political situation in the Republic of Moldova was almost entirely controlled by Vladimir Plahotniuc and a dispute is expected between the establishment of the Presidency and the establishment of the Parliament. The president has limited powers, he cannot dissolve the parliament. He can only act accordingly, but the president will have the legitimacy of the people and will have that support from the people that he will seek to promote for change.“, said Ion Tăbîrţă.
The former judge of the European Court of Human Rights Stanislav Pavlovschi, who has become a political analyst, believes that “Moldova has no choice but to integrate into Europe“, and a victory for the left “it would imply an orientation towards Russia and the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)”.
“If Mr. Dodon stays, he will be, as before, more oriented towards cooperation with the CIS countries and the Russian Federation. If he is Maia Sandu, he will be oriented towards Europe, towards European integration, towards greater cooperation. the problem is how far they will go to fulfill these obligations, promises and declarations, I believe that Moldova has no choice, Moldova is a very small state and Moldova is bound to work closely with civilized countries. it is part of the Latin civilization and the place is normally in the family of countries that are part of the Latin civilization, it would be normal, but we live in real circumstances and tensions and the influence of the Russian Federation in Moldova is very high. it can gain from this cooperation, but somewhere it loses and if we weigh or compare what we gain with what we lose, I believe that working with European countries would be more beneficial for the country n oastrăPavlovschi said.
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