Moscow presents the United States as sinking into chaos

Four years ago, in November 2016, Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election was celebrated in Moscow. The news of Hillary Clinton’s concession was met with spontaneous applause by deputies from the Kremlin-controlled State Duma during a plenary session. The champagne was uncorked and the English language RT The editor-in-chief of the propaganda network, Margarita Simonyan, drove across the Garden Ring of central Moscow in her limo with a US flag flying from the window. Russian elites had high hopes that a major deal between the Trump administration and President Vladimir Putin was imminent and that Russia’s seemingly most out of reach goals could suddenly become reality. Trump was seen as a genuine nationalist / isolationist, who, by carrying out his “America First” policies, would effectively break up the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), withdraw US forces from Europe and other parts of the world, abandoned Ukraine and the rest of the post-Soviet space to fall into Moscow’s undisputed sphere of influence and put an end to the anti-Russian sanctions imposed after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 (see EDM, 10 November 2016).

These expectations never came true; and although Trump, during his presidency, continued to talk about making a deal with Putin, Russia’s pro-Trump enthusiasm has gradually subsided. According to independent pollster Levada Tsentr, about 60% of Russians said in November 2016 that they “would vote for Trump”, while only 5% said the same of Clinton. In 2016, around 91% of Russians said they closely followed the US elections, while in 2020 only 62% did. Overall, in 2020, around 16% of Russians expressed support for Trump and 10% for his Democratic Party challenger, Joseph Biden. Of the Russians who followed the 2020 election most closely, 39% expressed support for Trump and 13% for Biden. Levada Tsentr director Lev Gudkov said: “In Russia, practically no one completely understands what’s going on in America, only a small minority of truly committed people do.” The lingering residue of Trump’s support in Russia stems mainly from people’s memories of the 2016 pro-Trump state public relations blitz and why the incumbent U.S. president’s routine complaints about immigrants and refugees have resonated with many Russians. Russian state TV coverage of the 2020 campaign was more balanced than in 2016: there were negative reports on both Trump and Biden (Newsru.com, Oct. 21).

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused to address the tense post-election atmosphere in the United States. “Since Moscow is not accused of this situation, it is better not to comment. Everything connected with Russia in America is like a red flag. Let the Americans figure it out for themselves, “he told reporters (TASS, November 5). The official position: Moscow is ready to work constructively with any American administration.

The general attitude in Moscow appears to be a discomfort for both contenders for the US presidency. But there is a nuanced trend to view Trump in a slightly more positive light. According to Russian TV host Vladimir Pozner, “The Russian leadership has long accepted that it makes little difference who is in the White House – relationships are and always will be very bad. However, if Trump were re-elected, as a second-term president he could be more independent and could do things Russia might like ”(RIA Novosti, November 5). According to Aleksandr Dugin (a prominent Russian political analyst and extreme nationalist strategist close to the Kremlin and the Russian military, and once an advisor to Sergei Naryshkin), “Trump and Biden are both a problem: Trump’s nationalism can easily turn into imperialism. while Biden is a Russophobe maniac. ”(Komsomolskaya Pravda, November 4) In Moscow, it seems there is still some hope that Trump can offer, while Biden is seen as a negative conclusion.

On November 3, Naryshkin, now director of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), gave an interview to Dmitry Kiselyov, TV host and general manager of the state propaganda conglomerate Rossiya Segodnya, which includes RT is RIA Novosti. The interview should have focused on the 100^th anniversary of the SVR and its ancestor departments of the KGB. But he ended up being almost dominated by Kiselyov’s long questions, which seemed more like statements. In any case, according to Naryshkin, the United States and its Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) “are our main opponents”. Russian assets Aldrich Ames (CIA) and Robert Hanssen (Federal Bureau of Investigation – FBI), both sentenced to life imprisonment in US prisons, have, according to Naryshkin, “greatly contributed to Russian (Soviet) national security; and for this reason, the US authorities refuse to change them. ” The SVR is following the internal political dynamics of the United States and believes there is a disruptive “color revolution” taking place, brought about by the self-indulgent power-hungry US ruling elites. The SVR predicts that riots and chaos will engulf the post-election United States as prolonged counting and recounting of ballots drag on and results are contested regardless of who wins. This crisis is a danger to the world, Naryshkin warned, and Moscow must be ready but not frightened: Russia and other nations have developed ways to solve global problems without the defunct superpower (i.e. the United States). In turn, Kiselyov added that Russia apparently has many allies in the world and is in the process of forming a in fact military alliance with China (RIA Novosti, 3 November).

Russian Orthodox Church official spokesman Alexander Shypkov told state-funded national Orthodox TV channel Spa, “The United States could disintegrate as a result of the elections, the vast US military will not know whose orders to follow if it has two or more commanders in chief. How is the world saved from the use of American nuclear weapons if US institutions are in chaos? “According to Shypkov, such a scenario is not far-fetched.” What to do with the US nuclear arsenal when the nation is divided or in a civil war? This needs to be discussed at the United Nations, at the highest level. Perhaps some form of oversight. international [of the US nuclear arsenal] must be presented ”, he proposed (Interfax, 5 November).

The Russian Orthodox Church, closely controlled since Soviet times by the Kremlin and the KGB and its successor organizations, has been used in the past to address issues that Moscow does not want to raise at the official level of government. The post-election tensions currently involving the United States are being amplified in Moscow as a critical threat. But at the same time, they are seen as an opportunity to decisively undermine a traditional and powerful enemy, possibly allowing Russia to finally get everything it once hoped Trump could offer, or perhaps much more. Moscow has given up hoping to make deals with Trump, but still wants to exploit its penchant for fomenting law-breaking chaos.