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The next two weeks (21 January – 3 February 2019) will be characterized, from a meteorological point of view, for a generally normal time for the calendar period but also for the positive daytime temperatures, while mixed precipitation will be rather important, above all at the local level, according to the forecasts of the National Meteorological Administration (NMA), provided on Monday.
In Banat, by the end of January, the average temperature regime will have oscillations from the specific climatological values of the period, with a maximum between 1 and 4 degrees, respectively minus -4 to -2 degrees, above normal values - most likely the 23 and January 24, when they will be 4 to 7 degrees a day and 0 to 2 degrees at night, on a regional average. Although it continues to show a high degree of uncertainty, the characteristic of the last two days of January and the first days of February is estimated to be the position of temperatures close to the average specific spread of this period of the year. The probability of precipitation will be relatively high in the reference interval, and over 23-25 January, when more rain will prevail, more water can accumulate.
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In Crişana, until the end of January, there will be fluctuations in the average temperature regime, from values around the weather conditions of the period (maximum 1 – 3 degrees and minimum between -6 and -4 degrees) to values higher than normal values. On January 23rd and 24th, temperatures can be from 3 to 6 degrees in the day, or between -2 and 1 degrees, during the night. The last two days of January and the first days of February have thermal values close to the average size of this period of the year, perhaps slightly above it. The probability of precipitation will be relatively high throughout the reference period and during the period between 24 and 25 January, when it will mostly rain or snow, they will generally become moderate in quantity.
In Transylvania, the average temperature regime will have, by the end of January, fluctuations from values around the climatologically specific of the period to values higher than normal values. Here, between 23 and 25 January, it will be between 3 and 7 degrees during the day and between -3 and 0 degrees during the night, median regionally. Although the likelihood of the probability model is still quite high, in the last two days of January and early February, it is estimated that the thermal gap will be close to that of this period of the year. The probability of mixed or predominantly snowfall precipitation will be relatively high in the reference range, but these will generally be weak.
In Maramures, until the end of January, there will be fluctuations in the average temperature regime from values around the specific climatological period (maximum 0-2 degrees and minus between -7 and -5 degrees) to values higher than normal – the most likely on 24 and 25 January, when it will be 3 to 5 degrees per day and between -2 and 0 degrees during the night, as a regional average. For the last two days of January and the first days of February, it is estimated that the temperature is close to the average size of this period of the year, perhaps slightly above it. The probability of generally weak precipitation (mainly snowy, but temporary and piercing or rainy) will be relatively high during most days of the reference interval.
In Moldova, by the end of this month the temperature of the air will vary from one interval to the next, but most of the daily values will be around the normal values in this period of the year, respectively between – 2 and 1 degree, the highest is highest possible around January 25, especially in the south of the region. As for the night thermal regime, the values above the norm in this month are between -4 and 2 degrees, regional average and in the night between 21 and 22 January it will be possible lower temperatures, locally around the threshold of frost ( -10 degrees ). Estimates for the end of January and the beginning of February indicate an average thermal spread close to the specific climatological period of the period. The probability of moderate and moderate precipitation (snow, snow and rain) will be higher between 23 and 25 January.
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In Dobrogea, the air temperature regime will be characterized, for most of the range, under normal conditions during this period of the year, the highest between 23 and 25 January, respectively from 6 to 10 degrees and a minimum of 2 to 6 degrees. In colder periods, temperatures close to the climatological average are expected, with values between 1 and 4 degrees, day and between -4 and -2 degrees during the night. The probability of precipitation, in the form of rain, temporarily moderate in quantity, will be higher between 23 and 26 January.
In Muntenia, the range starts with a thermal regime close to the specific climatological one. The maximums will fluctuate between 1 and 4 degrees and the minus between -5 and -3 degrees. Subsequently, until January 28, temperatures above normal temperatures are expected in the last decade of January, with an average daytime spread of 4-8 degrees and nighttime -1 to 3 degrees. The estimates for the last days of January and the beginning of February, although relatively high in uncertainty, tend to indicate a thermal regime close to or slightly higher than in the period. The probability of precipitation will be higher between 23 and 26 January, when rain will prevail and local water will be more significant.
In Oltenia, the reference range will start with a thermal regime close to the specific climate (maximum 1 – 3 degrees and minimum between -5 and -3 degrees). By January 28, temperatures above the normal are expected in the last decade of January, with an average diarthar from 3 to 7 degrees and a night from -1 to 3 degrees. Estimates for the last two days of January and at the beginning of February have a relatively high degree of uncertainty, but tend to indicate a thermal regime close to or slightly above the normal period. The probability of precipitation will be higher between 22 and 25 January, when rainfall will be predominant and water quantities will be more significant locally.
In mountain areas, even if there will be variations from one interval to the other, the thermal values will be in most of the range compared to normal for this period of the year, with the maximum oscillating between -6 and – 2 degrees or less between -12 and -7 degrees, respectively. Between 23 and 25 January, temperatures will be above the climatological environments. Therefore, slightly positive daytime values and a night average between -8 and -4 degrees are expected. The probability of precipitation will increase for the most part, but especially between 23 and 26 January, when the winter will prevail. There will also be mixed, moderate and quantitative rainfall.
Estimates are based on the numerical products of the European Center for Medium-Term Forecasting (ECMWF) in Reading, England.
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