Like a horror thriller: the WEF study on the state of the world

Like a horror thriller: the WEF study on the state of the world

The latest report on the risks of the World Economic Forum reads like a horror thriller. So, it's on different fronts because the world survives. Hope does not make the organization.

Climate change, data crime, geopolitical crises and global economic tensions: the World Economic Forum (WEF) risk report presented in London on Wednesday shows a devastating picture of the state of the earth.

"Global risks are increasing, but the collective will to fight them is weakening, but the division is on the rise," says the study. The titles of the individual chapters show how serious the situation is: "Out of control" means one thing, another "Fight or Flight".

As a result, a particularly high risk comes from climate change. For the first time, the annual report identifies environmental issues as the three most pressing challenges. In particular, these are extreme weather events, failure of climate protection and adaptation to climate change and natural disasters.

"Among all the risks, in the environment it is more obvious that the world is sleepwalking in the disaster," says the study. But even fraud and robbery and cyberattacks of data are among the biggest threats.

Just over a week before the annual meeting in Davos (January 22 to 25), the WEF has defined the emphasis on cooperation. "There has never been a more urgent need for a collaborative and shared approach to global issues that are of everyone's interest," wrote WEF president Børge Brende in the preface to the Global Risk Report.

But the WEF is also extremely skeptical about the fact that humanity accepts and faces the challenge. Regarding political and economic conflicts, the organization warns: "In this context, it could be more difficult to make common progress on other global challenges".

Traditionally, the WEF presents the World Risk Report about a week before the start of the conference in the Swiss Alps. The organization sees the study as a sort of guide to the central issues of the year 2019.

In their report, the authors also feel the consequences of current trade conflicts, such as between the United States and China or between the United States and the European Union. "Economic policy (…) is increasingly viewed as a means of strategic competition," he says.

Crises are far from being finished

The report underlines that these crises are not over yet. For example, 91% of respondents expect economic disputes between the most important states and 85% expect an increase in the risk of political confrontation.

"In many countries, the polarization is increasing, in some cases, the social contracts that keep companies together weaken," warned WEF president Brende.

An important role is played by slower economic growth, above all because the economy is grappling with serious problems. Add to this the fact that financial markets have become more volatile and the burden of debt worldwide has increased dramatically: now it amounts to 225 percent of global gross domestic product, more than before the recent financial crisis.

Age of uncertainty for many

Last but not least, the WEF warns of the "human side" of global risks. "For many people, this is an increasingly anxious, unhappy and lonely world," says the report.

It is estimated that around 700 million people worldwide would suffer from mental health problems. "This is an era of unprecedented opportunities and technological advances, but for too many people, this is also an era of uncertainty," warned WEF president Brende.

weather wars

The WEF also formulated ten "future shocks" as theoretical scenarios in the risk report as a reason for discussion at the Davos meeting. These include the authors, including the so-called "meteorological wars" – the manipulation of the climate to weaken the adversaries – and the deliberate interruption of the food supply.

Other scenarios include the end of water supply in large cities and the transfer of geopolitical conflicts in space. All these scenarios are a reminder to think creatively about risks and expect the unexpected. (WHR / AWP / SDA / dpa)