Kenya: high stakes for Kenya as “Uncle Sam” decides

Which political party benefits Kenya the most when it is in power in the United States?

As the Americans headed to the polls last night, Nairobi, some 10,000km away, was very interested in the outcome as it would either continue or alter relations between the two countries.

Donald Trump, the incumbent, is looking to win his second term against former Vice President Joe Biden.

Both have spoken little of their African policies, perhaps signaling how low the continent is on their foreign policy agenda.

Trump never visited Africa in his first term. Biden indicated that the United States will continue to defend and work with all allies who support American interests.

However, Africa still has key US allies, especially in the fight against terrorism, which both Republicans and Democrats have advocated as a national security priority.

“With the United States, any engagement with Africa or other regions has been with the United States first,” George Mucee, the Practice Leader of Fragomen-Kenya, an immigration consultancy in Nairobi, told the Nation.

“What matters is the how? Trump is an outspoken person, while Biden may be kinder but firm in the implementation of US policies,” Mucee said in an interview Tuesday.

In his early months in office, Trump made a controversial comment that Africa was “shit”, as well as initially preventing citizens of specific countries from entering the United States, presumably for security reasons.

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These same reasons may have defined his leadership type. But Mr. Mucee claims he has also shown that he will support allies who can help his policies.

“Trump is heavy on national security, and anyone who helps advance his security at home is a friend. Kenya has benefited immensely from security funding to help counter terrorism.”

Last year, the United States and Kenya signed an updated Joint Security Governance Action Plan, intended to “strengthen bilateral cooperation on civilian security, governance and anti-corruption efforts,” according to a message. of the State Department in May last year.

This means that the United States continues to support Kenya’s refugee reception programs, as well as health care, education and security.

In August 2018, Presidents Trump and Uhuru Kenyatta, at the White House, established the framework for bilateral strategic dialogue, elevating their bilateral relations to a “ strategic partnership ”.

This meant that the focus had to be two-way, based on “shared values, mutual cooperation and a common vision for free, open and secure societies”, a message indicated at the time.

Last year, in May, then foreign CS Monica Juma signed a Bilateral Strategic Dialogue Framework with US Deputy Secretary of State John J. Sullivan to prioritize economic ties and investment opportunities.

Yet these may only be indicative of America First politics, rather than deepening the friendship.

Ahead of the elections, some 4,200 young people from 12 African countries, including Kenya, cited the United States as a still influential country on the continent this week, despite the challenge posed by China.

The survey commissioned by the Ichikowitz Family Foundation (IFF) and conducted by PSB Research (an affiliate of the WPP group), interviewed young people from Kenya, Congo Brazzaville, Ethiopia, Gabon, Ghana, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, Togo, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

It found that 74% of young people consider the United States to be influential and 83% of this category think that the flu is positive.

Yet Trump himself was only highly appreciated by six percent, nearly half of what the Obama-Biden administration had. However, two in 10 of the surveyed group indicated that it could increase in popularity if it wins the second term, suggesting perhaps a greater focus on the continent.

Trump’s predecessors had initiated or continued aid programs such as President’s Emergency Response to AIDs Relief (Pepfar), set up by George W. Bush) to support HIV / AIDS patients in Africa. The program has pumped money for education and humanitarian support to Africa.

Biden and Obama also initiated the Young Africa Leadership Initiative, which aimed to inculcate governance values ​​among young people.

Trump, for his part, has been more attentive to business relations. He launched Prosper Africa, an initiative designed to counter China and establish channels for US companies. It comes from the Better Utilization of Investments Leading to Development Act of 2018 (BUILD Act), which transformed the former Overseas Private Investment Corporation into the US Development Finance Corporation, a $ 60 billion fund.

In Kenya, it has begun talks for a trade deal, which accused critics could, however, expose Kenya to a damaging trade imbalance.

Last week, US Ambassador to Kenya Kyle MacCarter said Kenya and the US need a free trade agreement to eliminate the uncertainty that could arise after the expiration of existing trade agreements under the ‘AGOA in 2025.

“It makes sense for the US to look to such a partner for the first modern FTA in the region,” he wrote in Nation, discussing the risks to Kenya as the largest economy in the region if it did not have trade deals.

“To do that, we need to look beyond Agoa to negotiate an agreement that will stimulate economic growth across East Africa. The first round of negotiations started on July 8 and the second this month.”

A bulletin from the South African Institute for Security Studies indicated that a Biden presidency could at least bring “respect” to Africa not seen in Trump’s statements.

“All of this shows that US Democrats are generally considered better for Africa than Republicans. But this can also lead to complacency,” the report said last month, referring to past Democrats’ failures such as not intervening in genocide. Rwandan during the Bill Clinton years.