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IOn Monday night, Donald Trump used two short messages to outline his strategy for the period following the withdrawal of US troops from northern Syria, which was self-managed by Kurds, Sunni Arabs and Christians. Trump warned Turkey not to attack the Kurds, but wrote in the same tweet about setting up a 32-kilometer security zone.
Where exactly and who should train them, the president has not commented. In any case, this area is exactly what Ankara has been asking for "protecting Kurdish terrorists" for years and has already militarily established itself in other parts of Syria.
But suddenly a new, unexpected problem is emerging that could upset the Syrian policy of Ankara. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) affiliated with al-Qaeda has taken control of the province of Idlib and parts of Hama.
Source: Infographic The World
The rebel militias supported by Turkey have been devastated. The jihadist government is now an ideal pretext for the Syrian regime and its ally Russia to finally launch their planned offensive on the country's last rebel bastion. With the reconquest of this region in the northwest of the country, the Assad regime could finally consolidate its power. Turkey and its affiliated rebels would lose part of their voice in the peace negotiations on the future of Syria.
For over two years, Syrian rebel groups have fought at Idlib. The militias conquered the territories and then lost them again. The ceasefire agreements have never lasted long. In January, the tide became surprisingly fast in favor of the HTS, formerly called Nusra Front, which is still on the list of international terrorist organizations.
Within a few weeks, the jihadist alliance of about 25,000 fighters drove out rival militias that joined forces under the name of the National Army. Turkey had formed and paid for the union of several dozen rebel groups.
There is no way to get around Russia in Syria
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Turkish President Erdogan has been strengthened after the US announcement to withdraw troops to Syria. But now Russia takes the place of US soldiers and this weakens Erdogan.
Source: WORLD / Kevin Knauer
One of these militias is Nour al-Din Zinki, who earned him the inglorious fame in Aleppo in mid-2016 when 12-year-old Abdullah Issa was beheaded. Also Ahrar al-Sham, one of the most powerful Islamist movements of the Syrian civil war, joined in Ankara. But now the rebel groups have had to defeat the jihadists of the HTS and sign their own resolution.
The approximately three million inhabitants of the province of Idlib do not expect anything good. "Now we are the target of the Russians and the regime," says Youssef, a resident of Idlib City, on WhatsApp. Youssef is not his real name because he is afraid of reprisals. "I do not want to be arrested like so many others".
HTS has arrested many hundreds of people in areas under their control in the last six months. The jihadists are hunting all those who are considered their critics. Many times there have been protests against the rigid rule of the Islamists.
After their successful campaign, HTS can continue to pursue the goal of developing a small state with courts and administration based on Sharia law. Their leader, Abu Muhammad al-Dzhalani, had traveled to Syria in 2011 to effectively find an offshoot of the Islamic State (IS). Instead, he joined al-Qaeda. Although it officially reversed this in 2016, this was generally seen as an attempt to get a more positive picture.
"Life under HTS is not good, but better than an offensive by the regime and Russia," says Youssef, the young man from Idlib. "You've been on the edge of a time." It was September of last year. The preparations were working at full speed. No one knew if and when the Syrian army and Russia would effectively launch the attack on the last bastion of the Syrian rebels.
The last point of escape
Idlib was one of the four de-escalation areas originating in Syria. It was the last vanishing point of many tens of thousands of rebel fighters and their families coming from those parts of the country that the Assad regime had resumed a little at a time.
Turkey and even the UN have warned of a "humanitarian catastrophe" in the case of an offensive to Idlib. On September 17, the turning point came. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Erdogan have agreed on a demilitarized buffer zone. The Syrian army and the rebels were separated by a strip 15-25 kilometers wide.
The agreement continued until the detection of HTS, a close opponent of the buffer zone and negotiations with the regime. Last weekend, the jihadists attacked Syrian army positions in Aleppo and near Hama.
In recent days, the Turkish army has sent military convoys over the border into Syria. It is still unclear whether this will strengthen the nine observation posts of Idlib, which Turkey has set up to hold off the Syrian army.
Sporadic attacks by the Syrian army
However, there is little support for the Turkish army. Syrian auxiliary troops have escaped to safe areas. These include the Kurdish enclave Afrin, which continues to be under the control of Turkey and Syrian rebels. Only 4000 men of the Nour al-Din-Zinki militia have, according to Turkish media reports, found refuge in Afrin.
The great movements of Syrian army troops did not exist so far. The Air Force carried out some sporadic attacks on Idlib and the artillery fired at jihadist positions. For the Assad regime, the province would be one of the last great pieces of the puzzle, with which it finally consolidates its power.
"This is a great defeat of the West"
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After the announced withdrawal of American troops from Syria, Russia and Turkey want to vote on their use in the country of civil war. Elmar Brok, long-time president of the European Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs, believes that this is a political-power catastrophe.
Idlib is a heart of Syria. Aleppo is then reconnected to Lattakia and Damascus by land. With Idlib, the regime would have held firmly in hand almost two-thirds of the country, except for the areas occupied by Turkey along the northern border and the region east of the Euphrates.
Therefore, the development of the re-recognition of Damascus as a legitimate representative of Syria should accelerate further. The United Arab Emirates reopened their embassy in Damascus. Other Arab states want to follow.
And Saudi Arabia is pleading for the resumption of Syria in the Arab League. The seat had been lifted by the Syrian government in 2011 due to the brutal repression of the regime against protesters. Step by step, President Assad, not long ago called "the massacre of his own people", has returned to the international scene.
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