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In Brussels, before the Brexit vote in the British House of Commons, impotence prevails. The EU would be willing to extend the suspension period, but the upcoming European elections will cause complications.
Theresa May and the President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker in their meeting in Brussels on 11 December 2018. (Image: Yves Herman / Reuters)
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and EU Council President Donald Tusk have in store for British Prime Minister Theresa May something Letter with explanations and interpretations sent to the Brexit contract. But no one can believe in Brussels that it can avoid the threat of refusal of the withdrawal agreement. The focus of the discussions in the Brussels Corridors is therefore the question of how the EU will react to a vote in the British House of Commons in the vote scheduled for Tuesday evening.
1. What scenario do the EU diplomats expect?
The way forward following the vote in London is powerless in the European capital. The main problem is that, even in Brussels, nobody knows what the consequences of domestic politics in the UK are, to which the EU should respond. In the United Kingdom, several scenarios are swept by a second vote in the House of Commons following a renegotiation in Brussels of new elections and a second referendum on Brexit until the delivery of the command to parliament. Much will depend on the amount of looming defeat of the Mays vote.
"It is not often the case in politics that there is such a great uncertainty on the path to follow," says a diplomat from the EU. But all the scenarios imaginable have in common that could hardly be realized in time until the release date of March 29th. The EU diplomats therefore reported that the remaining 27 EU Member States (EU-27) would be ready to extend the British exit of the EU March 29 by a few months. , in order to avoid a chaotic Brexit.
2. How and how long could Brexit be postponed?
However, diplomats point out that, by a postponement, a corresponding petition from London should arrive first. May spoke again before the vote against an extension of time, but the last word in London should not yet be pronounced. Pursuant to Article 50 of the EU Treaties, which regulates the withdrawal of Member States, the remaining 27 EU Member States may extend the deadline by unanimous decision. One would still expect a reasoning from Britain, for which the expiry of the deadline should serve exactly, says a diplomat. Another attempt by Mays to enforce the agreement in Parliament could be a valid justification, but also, for example, a change of government or the organization of new elections or a second referendum.
However, at the end of May there will be European elections, in which Britain should participate, if it is still a member of the EU. The inaugural meeting of the new European Parliament is scheduled for early July, which is why there is a three-month deadline in Brussels by the end of June.
If the United Kingdom had lagged behind in the EU, the extension would be much more complicated as the British would have to send new Members to Brussels and Strasbourg.
3. Why is the EU afraid of a longer deadline?
As in the case of an & # 39; extension of the withdrawal period over the beginning of July it would be exactly to proceed, it is open. EU officials and diplomats are reluctant to discuss this scenario in detail. If the time was not enough for a British participation in the European elections, it would be conceivable to have a June election. At best, it is also conceivable that the British will be appointed as deputies for a limited transitional period representing the country in Brussels and Strasbourg.
The situation is further complicated by the fact that 27 of the 73 British seats left vacant in the European Parliament after the Brexit have to be divided between countries like France, Italy and Spain, which have been slightly underrepresented so far. However, the EU has stated that the reassignment of seats will become obsolete if Brexit is not performed. In countries like Ireland, which will have 13 rather than 11 deputies in the future, the electoral rules must be changed, which is why there is a quick hope for clarity regarding the possibility of voting according to the new or the old system. Many Members of the European Parliament are also bothered by the idea that British colleagues will join the new Commission, only to come out a little later. Also for Great Britain, participation in the European elections would be a highly unsatisfactory exercise despite the expected withdrawal from the EU.
4. How else could a difficult Brexit be prevented?
The EU-27 has stepped up preparations for a chaotic Brexit and took due precautions. But they have no interest in such a scenario. But many ways to avoid a hard Brexit, there is more in the short term. At most, it would be possible to agree on a transition period during which Britain would remain a passive member of the EU without voting rights and representation in the EU Parliament. However, this provisional solution has so far been explicitly envisaged as part of the Treaty on Brexit and the renegotiations on the Treaty have so far been categorically excluded.
In theory, it would also be possible for the EU to restrict the security lock as an obstacle to avoiding a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, as requested by the House of Commons, and this initiative should come from the Irish government. What other promises could make the Treaty in London even by majority is not completely clear, given the political chaos in Westminster. German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected a report by the British newspaper The Sun on Tuesday, according to which she offered help to Theresa May, which goes beyond the previous commitments of the EU.
5. Can Brexit be reversed?
In a widely acclaimed December judgment, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) held in Luxembourg that the United Kingdom Government had the right to withdraw the activation of Article 50 even without the consent of the Government. EU-27. This would leave Britain a member of the EU with all rights and obligations as if nothing had happened. There have also been British discounts on the EU budget and special solutions, according to which the British do not have to take over the euro and only participate in a la carte in security cooperation in the Schengen area. Not all states and MEPs would be happy to leave Brexit. But the majority would welcome a change of British heart. In an emotional letter In any case, more than 100 MPs from different bands are explicitly encouraging the British to remain in the EU.
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