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The United States is no longer a party to the international agreement on military reconnaissance flights between NATO countries and Russia.
Above all, the control flights were supposed to ensure transparency and confidence-building: a NATO AWACS reconnaissance plane over Germany.
Photo: Matthias Rietschel (Keystone)
With the United States withdrawing from the important agreement on military observation flights, the agreement between most NATO countries and Russia faces an uncertain future. US withdrawal announced six months ago (we reported) came into effect on Sunday. The continuation of the treaty without the United States now depends on Russia: if nuclear power withdraws it would be invalid. This is why the focus is not least on US presidential election winner, Democrat Joe Biden, who is expected to replace Donald Trump in the White House on January 20 – and who defends the deal.
The Trump administration announced in late May that the United States would withdraw from the so-called Open Skies Treaty on military observation flights. Washington cited Moscow’s violations as a reason. This is why the United States is no longer bound by the treaty. The announcement caused international irritation and concern.
The United States had not even explained the reason for the withdrawal from the contract, Kremlin head Vladimir Putin complained in a group of experts in October. NATO states could continue to fly over Russian territory and hand over all information to the Americans. Russia, on the other hand, should no longer receive any information from the United States, but does not want to look like a “madman,” Putin said. “Let’s talk honestly!” he offered.
Germany wants to keep Russia in the deal
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov subsequently set the conditions for Russia to remain in the agreement. On November 12, he called for a written commitment from NATO states to stop transmitting data to the United States after observation flights over Russia. And he warned the contracting parties not to respond to US requests to no longer allow Russian observation flights to US military bases in Europe.
“This is a serious violation of the treaty,” Lavrov said. The ability to observe US activities in Poland or Germany, for example, is considered attractive to Russia, which is why the country remains in the deal despite massive concerns, at least for the time being.
The badge for the “Open Sky” mission is decorated with a coat of arms on the arm of a member of the crew of a Bundeswehr mission aircraft. The US withdrawal from the military observation flight agreement announced six months ago has taken effect.
Photo: David Charisins / dpa
Germany also wants to keep Russia in the deal. The federal government sees the Open Skies Treaty as “an important part of the European arms control architecture,” Federal Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said in May. “It contributes to security and peace in virtually the entire Northern Hemisphere.”
Moscow sets the conditions for future NATO observation flights
After the United States withdrew from the agreement on military observation flights, Russia on Sunday set the conditions for NATO states still involved to remain in the agreement. The remaining NATO states should give “firm guarantees” that they will not transmit any data to the US after flights over Russian territory, the Moscow State Department asked Sunday. It was a reaction to the US withdrawal from the Open Skies Agreement that went into effect that day.
If nuclear power fails to meet its demands and withdraws, the treaty, considered one of the cornerstones of European security, would be invalid. “All variants are open to us,” the ministry said. Russia will now monitor developments and make decisions based on its security interests.
More than 1500 observation flights have been carried out so far
The agreement was concluded in 1992 and entered into force in 2002. Under certain rules, it allowed the 34 signatory states to carry out several inspection flights per year in the airspace of the contracting parties. The United States and Russia could each carry out up to 42 reconnaissance flights per year. More than 1500 observation flights have been carried out so far.
After long years of the Cold War, control flights were primarily intended to ensure transparency and confidence-building. Russia was able to see from above how military bases in Europe and the United States are developing. Instead, the Americans and their NATO partners were allowed to fly into Russian airspace for observation.
The disputes with Moscow were seen by US security experts as a hot topic when Washington made the announcement. It was suspected that Trump preferred not to be bound by international agreements rather than complicated ones or those that do not correspond 100% to his interests. The United States has already abandoned numerous international agreements under the Republican. Among other things, they withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran, the Paris climate agreement and the INF treaty banning land-based medium-range nuclear weapons.
Joe Biden wants to reverse the decision
Election winner Biden wants to review this course. If the Open Skies treaty can be maintained over the next two months, the Democrat could consider a return maneuver – and thus send a strong signal to NATO partners after Trump’s four years. “Without us, the treaty could fall apart,” Biden warned after the Trump administration resigned in May.
The allies made it clear that they wanted the United States to stay in the treaty. “An exit will exacerbate the growing tensions between the West and Russia and increase the risks of misjudgment and conflict,” he said.
According to US think tank Brookings, Biden should get a majority in the US Congress to return. Russian political scientist Dmitri Susslow believes this is “virtually impossible” given the balance of power in Washington. “Biden will not be returning to the INF or the Open Skies contract,” he says. However, Russia is hoping for Biden.
The nuclear disarmament treaty remains pending
After the release of Open Skies, a major setback in arms control may still be imminent: the future of the last major nuclear disarmament treaty, the New Start, is still pending. The contract will expire in early February 2021 if Russia and the United States do not agree on an extension. Russia has repeatedly asked for this, with no tangible results so far.
The New Beginning Treaty limits both countries’ nuclear arsenals to 800 transportation systems each and 1,550 operational nuclear warheads each. Biden had previously argued in favor of extending the contract. However, after its inauguration on January 20, it has little time for this. If the deal expires, there would be no deal for the first time in decades setting limits on the stock of strategic nuclear weapons.
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