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Although all electoral groups weigh in American elections, there are some that tend to be more influential than others when it comes to counting votes. Barack Obama, for example, won the 2008 and 2012 elections with a coalition made up of minorities, women and young people. And Donald Trump, in 2016, was dictated by the endorsement of men, the white vote, and people with no higher education.
In 2020 there are five segments that experts have identified as appeals to define the contest on November 3 between President Trump – who was yesterday at a demonstration in Arizona – and the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, who has announced that he will campaign electoral. for the first time in this election with Obama, in the state of Michigan this Saturday.
Here we tell you what these groups are and why they will be key.
(Read also: Colombians who mentioned the American elections.)
The white vote
As diverse as the United States is, when it comes time to vote, the white vote is still by far the most important. In the last elections, for example, they accounted for 74 percent of the electoral part although they represent only 60 percent of the country. Any change in the trend of these voters is critical in determining the winner. In 2016, Trump scored that 15-point vote ahead of Hillary Clinton (54 vs.39). And if the former secretary of state ended up being competitive – he won the popular vote – it was because he compensated with the minorities, where he prevailed by more than 50 points (75 against about 25).
Voters cast their votes in early voting in Durham, North Carolina.
This time, things are not going so well for the president. While he’s still the favorite, the difference to Biden at this point is six points or less, half of what he took from Hillary four years ago (50 vs. 45, based on average polls). And this is huge.
It is estimated that in 2016, nearly 100 million votes were cast by whites. In other words, Trump got 15 million more votes than Hillary. Half or less means that the president could lose between 7 and 8 million votes this time around. If the numbers are maintained and he doesn’t fill that deficit with other segments of the electorate, his chances of winning re-election would be seriously jeopardized.
Women
One of the biggest disappointments for Hillary Clinton in 2016 came from the women’s vote. Although it was supported by about 52% of them, according to the Pew Research Center, and only 40% supported Trump, it was a low number considering it was the first time a woman had run for president. Y given the allegations of sexual harassment and misogyny that weighed against the Republican. A number that has been offset by Trump’s favoritism among men (41 against 52) and which alone could cost him the election.
But a lot has happened since then, including the explosion of the #MeToo movement since 2017 and the president’s weight in the White House.
Some of these were seen in the 2018 election when a record number of women won seats in Congress (117), the majority representing the Democratic Party. This trend would continue for these elections. According to polls, Joe Biden outperformed Clinton in support preferences (between 52 and 54 percent) and put Trump ahead by more than 15 points. If you consider that women are the majority in the country (almost 51 percent) and that they generally represent 55 percent of the electorate (they vote more than men), their vote could be a doom for Trump.
Donald Trump and Hilarry Clinton during the 2016 election.
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The Latins
Hispanics, with their 60 million residents, are the largest minority in the United States (18%). And while they are not the most judicious when it comes to voting – less than 50% do – they have been and will be key in this presidential election. Mainly because of its geographical location, since many live in states such as Florida, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina, all in the group of oscillating states (oscillating states), whose approval by one or the other candidate will define the name of the occupant. of the White House.
In 2016, 66% voted for Clinton and 28% for Trump (38 points). A low figure for a Republican candidate, but understandable given the president’s anti-immigrant rhetoric. But polls for 2020 indicate he would fare slightly better with Latins. In most polls the difference is closer to 27 points (62 versus 35). It is also estimated that far more Latinos will vote this year than in 2016 (55%, according to the Pew Center).
If those numbers hold up, it could be disastrous for Biden’s aspirations in those states.. Trump’s revival with Hispanics would put him on a similar level to other Republican candidates of the past, such as George W. Bush, who won 35 percent of this vote and was able to win the 2000 election and of 2004.
In Florida, Latin voters have expressed their support for Joe Biden.
People over 65
It is one of the most important groups, as it is one of the most disciplined when it comes to voting and carries great weight even in undecided statessuch as Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania, where large retirement communities live.
In 2016 Trump won this group with a nine-point difference (53 versus 44 percent). But this year’s champions indicate he would lose it. and long enough. On average Biden is about 10 points behind him (54 to 44). In large part this is due to the treatment he gave Trump on the issue of coronavirus, whose mortality is very high in this segment of the population. Of the 222,000 victims, more than two thirds (around 165,000 people) were over 65.
In this 2020 there are five segments that experts have identified as the invitations to define the contest on November 3 between President Trump and Democratic candidate Joe Biden
The independents
Although nearly one in four voters in the United States (25%) say they are independent and do not belong to either party, in practice the vast majority of them already tend to prefer Republicans or Democrats. Hence, only 8% of the electorate, according to a Pew Center report, can be classified as truly independent.
A number in decline in recent years given the levels of polarization existing in the country. But that 8 percent equals more than 10 million votes and any change in trends is usually important in the outcome of elections which have been defined by very small margins. Trump, in 2016, won the elections with about 200,000 votes which gave him victory in 3 states of the country (Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania).
In that election, the Republican candidate won the Independents vote by just one point of difference. For this 2020 polls say that Biden is up by 7 points.
That prediction isn’t good for Trump, especially since, according to the same polls, 85 percent of them would have already opted for one of the two candidates, while in 2016 only 62 percent arrived on election day with that decision. That is, the percentage of independents that would still be in the game this time around is much smaller.
(You may be interested in: ‘Bipartisan support for Colombia is at risk’: Dan Restrepo)
SERGIO GÓMEZ MASERI
Correspondent EL TIEMPO
WASHINGTON
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