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Following the announcement by the US that most US troops will withdraw from Afghanistan by the end of the year, the Bundeswehr is preparing for the end of the German mission in northern Afghanistan. At least since Christoph Miller’s press conference in Washington on Tuesday, Department of Defense planners have speculated that the German training mission in Mazar-i-Sharif would be hardly justifiable after the withdrawal of about half of the 5,000 US troops from Afghanistan today. .
Miller, who is considered a staunch supporter of Donald Trump, formally announced the US withdrawal by January 15, 2021 at the Pentagon on Tuesday. This would be the most important step towards full US withdrawal before Joe Biden took office on January 21st. He has already briefed NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, Miller said.
The appearance of Miller, who did not allow any questions after his statement, confirmed all German fears. Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer had already phoned his new colleague, who was still President Trump last week, last Thursday. Miller made it clear that if Trump ordered, he would implement the US withdrawal without any delay.
US support is vital to the Bundeswehr and NATO as a whole, which trains the Afghan army with some 12,000 troops from member states. It is true that all partners together have more US soldiers in the field. Without the American Air Force fighters, which are always on standby, for example, NATO troops would be on their own in an emergency, such as a Taliban attack on one of the NATO camps outside Kabul.
So few American soldiers can barely provide support
The partners still count on the US Air Force for evacuations. With the maximum limit of 2,500 soldiers, this emergency aid – the military speaks of “critical enabling factors” – is difficult to access. The new head of the Pentagon Miller has generally spoken of the willingness to continue supporting Afghans and NATO partners in the fight against terrorism. However, he avoided a corresponding guarantee that his predecessor Marc Esper Berlin, who had since been fired, had given a few months ago.
At the Ministry of Defense, the planning of the withdrawal has already begun. “We were hoping for the best and prepared for the worst,” he said. A group of logistics specialists had been relocated to Mazar for a few months and have been planning to retire ever since. In reality, the plan was to finish the mission in early summer 2021. Now it will have to go faster.
After Miller’s statement, it became clear that NATO’s concerns or creed of “in together, out together” are irrelevant. Trump’s security adviser even predicted that all US soldiers would leave Afghanistan by May 2021. Then only a small counter-terrorism mission will remain stationed in the Hindu Kush. Trump can no longer decide that. His successor, Biden, will find it difficult to undo a withdrawal that has been initiated.
The mission could expire 20 years after 9/11
There are hardly any more options for Berlin. It is true that plans could be devised to continue the “Resolute Support” training mission from Kabul. However, the US withdrawal will trigger a domino effect within NATO. Hardly anyone wants to maintain an inefficient and loss-making mission. The alliance’s commitment to Hindu Kush is expected to expire in 2021, exactly 20 years after the 9/11 attacks in the United States.
Trump’s latest official acts could have fatal consequences for the future of Afghanistan. The United States negotiated with the Taliban in late February that the military mission is expected to end at the end of April 2021. The radical Islamists wanted to stop their fight against the Kabul government. The Taliban have not yet concluded an agreement on this.
After a US withdrawal it seems more than questionable why they should still stick to the Doha agreements.
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