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Countries must decrease fossil fuel production by 6 percent annually between 2020 and 2030 if the world is to avoid a “catastrophic” rise in global temperature, a new report backed by the United Nations has found.
Published Wednesday, in the shadow of the coronavirus pandemic, the Production Gap Report also revealed that while the pandemic and subsequent blockages have led to “short-term declines” in coal, oil and gas production, pre-COVID and post-COVID plans COVID stimulus measures indicate a continuation of increasing fossil fuel production.
“As we try to restart economies following the COVID-19 pandemic, investing in low-carbon energy and infrastructure will be good for jobs, economies, health and clean air,” he said. Inger Andersen, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP).
“Governments must seize the opportunity to steer their economies and energy systems away from fossil fuels and rebuild better towards a more just, sustainable and resilient future.”
The Production Gap Report, produced jointly by research institutes – Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), Overseas Development Institute, and E3G – and UNEP, measures the “gap” between the aspirations of the Paris climate change and planned production of coal, oil and gas by countries.
The report also comes at a potential tipping point, according to the authors’ organizations, as the global pandemic requires unprecedented government action and as major economies, including China, Japan and the Republic of Korea, have committed to achieving emissions. net zero.
‘Better recover together’
The 2020 edition found that the “production gap” remains large: countries expect to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with a temperature limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the report showed “undoubtedly” that fossil production and use must rapidly decline if the world is to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.
“This is critical to ensuring both a secure future for the climate and strong and sustainable economies for all countries, including those most affected by the transition from gray to green,” he said.
“Governments must work to diversify their economies and support workers, including through COVID-19 recovery plans that do not block unsustainable fossil fuel pathways but instead share the benefits of green and sustainable recoveries. We can and must recover better together “.
Use COVID-19 recovery plans
The report outlined key areas for action, providing policy makers with options to start cutting fossil fuels as they implement COVID-19 recovery plans.
“Governments should direct recovery funds towards economic diversification and a clean energy transition that offers better long-term economic and employment potential,” said Ivetta Gerasimchuk, co-author of the report and responsible for sustainable energy supply. at IISD.
He also pointed out that the demand shock caused by the pandemic and the collapse in oil prices this year have once again demonstrated the vulnerability of many fossil fuel-dependent regions and communities.
“The only way out of this trap is to diversify these economies beyond fossil fuels,” added Ms. Gerasimchuk.
A “clear” solution
The report also called for the reduction of current government support for fossil fuels, the introduction of production restrictions and stimulus funds for green investments.
Michael Lazarus, co-author of the report and head of the US SEI Center, stressed that “the research is abundantly clear, we must face severe climate disruption if countries continue to produce fossil fuels at current levels, not to mention planned increases.”
The research is equally clear on the solution: government policies that reduce both the demand and supply of fossil fuels and support the communities that currently depend on them. This report offers the steps governments can take today for a just and equitable transition from fossil fuels. ”
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