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Researcher asks for a hard block for two weeks
Göttingen physicist Viola Priesemann sees little chance that the currently applicable contact restrictions will lead to a marked decrease in the number of corona infections by Christmas. “The so-called block light was worth trying, but it wasn’t enough,” Priesemann said in an interview with the Evangelical Press Service. At least he made sure the number of new infections stabilized at a high level. “But the number of cases can only be significantly reduced with a constant block of two or three weeks.”
Priesemann still sees potential limitations, especially in schools and the world of work. Where possible, people should work from the home office constantly. Also, at least older students should switch to home education. The leader of the research group at the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization in Göttingen pointed out that further restrictions are also possible in retail, private contacts and adult education. “We have to turn all the screws a little bit more.”
The goal should be to use the short but effective block to achieve a seven-day incidence value of 50 or less per 100,000 population. For this, the number of reproductions must be 0.7. So, mathematically, ten people would only infect seven others. If the number of cases were to be reduced, this target should be communicated clearly so that citizens would accept the tough measures, asked Priesemann, who and his team are making model calculations for the course of the corona pandemic.
After about two to three weeks, health authorities in most counties would again have the infection process under control and could track and test contacts with infected people. “Then the restrictions could be greatly relaxed.” The scientist referred to Australia, Ireland and Israel, as well as to many Asian countries. After severe contact restrictions, you would now have the pandemic under control. Social life almost normalized there.
According to Priesemann’s calculations, it makes no sense in Germany, in the conditions of the so-called block light, to maintain the previous restrictions, for example in culture, hotels and restaurants. “These measures vanish. Now it’s all or nothing. If we don’t tighten the screw consistently, the number of cases probably won’t decrease. So you have to ask yourself how long you want to keep the current restrictions. “
The physicist also supported changing the test strategy and testing entire groups, such as school classes, with a single PCR test. “Just put all the tests in a test tube and have them examined in the laboratory.” This would save on test kits and reduce lab workload. If the test is positive, individuals may be re-examined if necessary. “But the quarantine would still apply to the whole group.”
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