Clues about Putin’s plans for the future

While the world’s eyes have been on the presidential election in the United States, lesser-noticed events in Russia may have a lot to say about the future of that country’s presidency.

And while the result of the US presidential election created the impression of a country with deeply divided political views, developments in Russia have served as a reminder of the challenges the political system faces there as well.

The year 2020 could prove to be a lasting influence on Russia’s future.

Start with the vote on constitutional reform. The vote ended on 1 July. The most controversial provision approved then modified the existing limits to presidential terms.

In theory, the new constitution could now allow the current president, Vladimir Putin, to remain in power until 2036. The changes comfortably passed the test with voters, although, as the BBC reported at the time, critics of Putin dismissed the entire year as a “big lie” and a “public relations exercise”.

Putin was first elected president in 2000. Aside from four years between 2008 and 2012, when his political protege, Dmitry Medvedev, served only one term, Putin has been at the height of Russian power ever since. His current term lasts until 2024.

At the time of the referendum, the inevitable speculation was that Putin might actually want to remain president until 2036. CNN, for example, referred to “his attempt to remain in power until the middle of the next decade”.

In fact, he’s probably just giving himself options, and staying in the Kremlin until 2036 is just one of them. After all, Putin would have turned 83 by then.

Permanent immunity from prosecution?

New legislation presented to the Russian parliament this week offers a clue to another option Putin might consider. As reported by Reuters on November 5, “the immunity of former Russian presidents from prosecution could be extended to any crime committed in their lifetime.”

The new law appears to be a safeguard for Putin should he decide to step down.

Putin’s political reputation and popularity were founded on the image of bringing order after the chaos that followed the collapse of communism.

He has presided over years of raising living standards, although those days are over, and given the economic challenges posed by lower oil prices, Western sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic, the timing of their return is uncertain.

A system that relies on Putin

Putin has symbolized political power in Russia since the present century – and this, perhaps, is the most significant flaw in the system he has created. It relies on one man, him, to function.

There was a reminder of the potential weakness of such a system this week, with speculation on the British tabloids The sun, and elsewhere, that Putin’s health could force him to resign.

Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, quickly dismissed the report as “sheer nonsense” in the remarks cited by TASS.

But such speculations, true or false, are a reminder of a great task facing Putin during his remaining time in office, however long that may be.

Putin currently has no obvious successor.

Skillful leadership involves succession planning. If Putin has a plan, he will carefully choose the time to go public, but this year’s events strongly suggest that he is thinking about it.