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It has been months and months to write, update and thicken a true political survival manual. But this time the reality could become relentless for Theresa May and its immediate consequences could lead to the fall of the Prime Minister and the British government. The agreement on the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union, which May presented to the House of Commons last Tuesday, was overwhelmingly rejected by a majority of members of the European Parliament, which resulted in a motion on Wednesday of censorship against the executive, promoted by the Labor party.
With 432 votes against and 202 votes in favor, the legal treaty negotiated with Brussels was shot down by Westminster's lower house in a vote that many voted as the most important in post-war British political history and that, given the difference of 230 votes that he gave, is the biggest defeat of a government in the parliament of the United Kingdom – largely surpassing the failure of Labor Ramsay MacDonald in 1924 with 166 votes.
In response to the disruptive failure of his agreement, largely triggered by the "rebellion" of 118 party conservative MPs, the prime minister himself challenged Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn to make the motion.
Assuming that the result of the vote "made it clear that the House does not support the agreement", May insisted that he wanted to "honor the decision of the British in the referendum" and that he would not give up driving the country out of # 39; EU, as promised To do this, ensures that all parts are heard.
"If the Chamber confirms its confidence in this Government, I will meet my colleagues, like our DUP partners [Partido Unionista Democrático] and with those in charge of other parties to identify what is needed to get their support, "said the prime minister.
And Corbyn met the challenge. After stressing that the executive "has consistently refused to speak to the other parties" stating that the result of the vote "provides a verdict on his absolute incompetence", the Labor leader, with an eye to the new elections, which will be discussed and voted on Wednesday.
"Citizens must regain control of the situation and the elections will allow them to elect new members, a new government and a new mandate to renegotiate the agreement with the EU. The wait and the denial have reached the end of the line ", he proclaimed.
If the motion is approved by the majority of deputies, the government falls. If a new executive is not submitted within 14 working days, to be approved or rejected by the Chamber, the Parliament will be dissolved and the elections will be called. Accounts that mix a lot, the program established by Theresa May for the "Brexit", set for March 29.
Expectable defeat
Opposition to the May agreement, publicly defended and for weeks and weeks by dozens of deputies from all political quarters, had already predicted lead in the House of Commons. The prime minister took power when he postponed the December vote and rescheduled for Tuesday – when he spoke of a "significant margin" defeat. But he tried to counteract reality, seeking clarification and threatening an inconceivable exit or with the complete reversal of "Brexit".
the First of May was characterized by long and passionate speeches in the House of Commons – the plenary session was all but the debate in its minutes – the overwhelming majority against the 585-page text that Downing Street agreed with Michel Barnier, a representative of the 27 Member States during the negotiations. At the same time, the ministers and Theresa May were making last minute telephone calls, messages and teleconferences to try to avoid the inevitable.
And at the end of the morning, the British prime minister, worn out by pride and political credibility, for two and a half years in defending his Brexit, inside and outside the party, Westminster and his government, suffered its first stop bar.
When it came to choosing the amendments to the agreement that would come before MEPs voted in the main speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow – repeatedly accused by the Eurosceptic faction of the Conservative party to be impartial in its management of work, being pro-EU – decided to omit three amendments envisaged by the government.
One of these, proposed by the Tory Andrew Murrison implies that the controversial arrest he had a temporary limit. The text required that the guarantee clause, agreed by the parties to avoid the physical border and customs controls between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which had been contested by brexiteers is remainers – it would expire on December 31, 2021 "if it came into force.
One possibility that the executive welcomed, without officially supporting it, because it had the potential to convince the DUP deputies of Northern Ireland, whose 10 members hold the conservative majority in Parliament – and ten voted against the May agreement.
Instead of the "Murrison" amendment, only one of the four proposals accepted by Bercow at the end of the morning was voted, as the authors of the remaining three – Corbyn (Labor), Ian Blackford (Scottish National Party) and Edward Leigh) – they took their last minute. The amendment that was to vote belonged to the Tory John Baron and stated that the United Kingdom had every right to abolish the arrest, without requiring EU authorization. It was rejected from 600 votes to 24.
DUP e brexiteers with may
Confirming the guide of the agreement, in a vote that May listed as "the most important of the political careers" of those present, the scenarios on the table were many and each constituted more uncertainty than another – renegotiation of the agreement, postponement of the exit, motion of censure, the convocation of the elections or a new referendum. And perhaps by taking the exit without agreement, none of them got significant support from Members.
But May has challenged Corbyn to advance the motion and believes he can beat it. Because unlike the House of Commons's opposition to its "Brexit", strongly motivated by the vote, the challenge to the prime minister deserves more cautious assessments.
If the Labor Party, the SNP and the Liberal Democrats hastened to join the motion of censure proposed by Corbyn, the most dissatisfied partners of the prime minister declared support. As in the case of the DUP, publicly, and the European research group – which Tories Eurosceptics: through sources that prefer to renegotiate the agreement to risk seeing workers win an election or promote a new referendum.
With the increase in the pound, a new battle will come in the House of Commons, with Theresa May once again willing to counteract reality. In addition to the suggestion of the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, the best solution could be to renounce the "Brexit" and rumors among the British media that over 100 deputies will launch a second referendum.
About seventy days before the scheduled departure date, there is still certainty about the feasibility of the divorce. And the no agreement it is still a real threat.
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