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On CoinDesk, Omkar Godbole offers his usual daily analysis of Bitcoin price movements (BTC). The last update is at 12:02 UTC now. Godbole notes that the recent decline of BTC at the 14-month lows shows that it is on track to experience its biggest annual loss.
A couple of weeks ago, Bitcoin was trading at $ 6,300. This was already a decline of over half for the current year according to CoinDesk's Bitcoin price index. At the time, conventional wisdom was that BTC would have reduced its losses with a recovery rally, as it seemed to have hit the low near $ 6,000 in the five months through October.
On November 14, everything changed when Bitcoin dived through the 21-month exponential moving average (EMA) support level, a sign that the record recovery of about $ 20,000 last December was recovering. On November 25, BTC fell to $ 3,500 before recovering ground.
A significant recovery seems unlikely before the end of the year according to Godbole, given that bears seem to be in charge. Bitcoin is likely to break the three-year winning series with an annual decline of 73%, the largest ever recorded.
The only previous annual loss of BTC was in 2014 with a decline of 57%. As long as prices remain below $ 5.959, the loss of this year will be the largest ever recorded. Technical indicators suggest that Bitcoin could lose even more before the end of the year.
Graph analysis
The weekly chart shows that the price of BTC has found acceptance under the crucial 200 week EMA and this reinforces the already bearish technical setting indicated by the breaking of the descending triangle that had already been confirmed two weeks ago.
The 4-hour chart also shows that Bitcoin had a symmetrical breakdown of the triangle to mean that the recent corrective ended at the latest November 29th of $ 4,400. Now bears are probably in control. The order of overlapping the 50 candles under the EMA of 100 candles and which in turn under the EMA of 200 candles is a bearish formation. BTC could test the recent low of $ 3,474 in the coming days.
The position of Godbole
Based on his analysis, Godbole concludes: "Bitcoin is on track to record the largest annual decline in registered prices, which would only change if prices rose above $ 5,959. The symmetrical breakdown of the triangle seen in the 4-hour chart favors a decline to $ 3,474 (Nov. 25) Acceptance below this level would further strengthen bear hold and open the downside to psychological support by $ 3,000. A short-term upside reversal term would be confirmed only above $ 4,400 (November 29th maximum). "
Current situation
According to CoinDesk data, BTC opened 24 hours ago at $ 3,897, well below $ 4,000. The maximum was only three dollars more at $ 3,900. It fell from $ 3,675 but has not yet fallen to $ 3,474 but certainly could in the next few days as Godbole suggests. There was no sign of a return above the $ 4000 level a disappointing result for the bulls. There is still no sign of a rally beyond the $ 5,959 sign that would keep this year from being the biggest loser for Bitcoin.
At 18:20 Central Standard Time the price of BTC was $ 3,720 not much lower than its minimum. However, there are still many days left in December and things may change. Perhaps buyers will decide that at these prices they should buy bitcoins and raise the price. The current Bitcoin price can be found here.
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