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(CNN) – The chances of President Donald Trump’s return are running out. It remains behind former Vice President Joe Biden, whose command remains nationwide and in key states with just days to go.
But perhaps most troubling for the president is that she is clearly below the pace of 2016. By now, four years ago, she was rapidly closing the gap with Hillary Clinton. No such progress can be seen in the 2020 poll against Biden.
Right now, Biden is up between 9 and 10 points nationwide, depending on the rated average. It is, above all, above 50%. Biden’s lead may have dropped by about a point since early October, even though it is well below the all-time average since the beginning of the year.
The 2016 campaign, however, was now in great turmoil. Among a number of factors, James Comey’s letter “investigating emails on Anthony Weiner’s laptop potentially related to an investigation into Hillary Clinton’s use of a private server” had just been published at this point in relationship. 2016 Campaign. No bombs of this magnitude were dropped this year.
Clinton’s lead dropped to just 4 points in the national average 9 days before the end of the 2016 election. His lead had been 7 points with about 21 days to go.
Clinton’s 45% vote share was low enough to give Trump a lot of room in the last week of the campaign to corner voters who were not in favor of either candidate at the time.
All Biden has to do now to win is keep the voters he has.
But the differences go beyond national face-to-face polls. An ABC News / Ipsos poll conducted after the final debate between Biden and Trump and released on Sunday found Trump’s net aiding rating (favorable – unfavorable) very weak, at -22 points.
The fact that Trump has a profoundly negative net aiding rating is nothing new. It was the norm during his presidency and it was also the norm during his 2016 White House candidacy.
The most interesting figure in the survey is that Biden’s net preference was +1 point. A positive net aiding score is the norm for Biden these days.
Yet Clinton had almost universally negative net aiding ratings in the last month and nine days after the 2016 election. That is, she didn’t like her any more than she did.
To win a victory in 2016, Clinton would have to win over voters who didn’t like her and Trump. Clinton ended up losing 18% of the electorate who had an unfavorable opinion of Trump and her by 17 points.
Today Biden doesn’t need to do any of that. All you have to do is win over the voters you already like.
Our latest CNN / SSRS poll found that Biden would beat Trump by a margin of 93% to 6% among the likely voters who had a favorable opinion of Biden.
Three state polls released Sunday by CBS News / YouGov also indicate that there has been little movement in the polls towards Trump.
Many of these polls were conducted before Thursday’s debate, although they were completed on Friday after the debate.
What’s key to note here is that they are nearly identical to what CBS News / YouGov found the last time they were in the field.
In Florida, Biden is 50% to 48% for Trump. Last month, it was 48% of Biden versus 46% of Trump.
In Georgia, Biden is 49% to 49% for Trump. Last month, it was 47% for Trump versus 46% for Biden.
In North Carolina, Biden is 51% versus Trump’s 47%. Last month, it was Biden’s 48% versus Trump’s 46%.
(Democrat Cal Cunningham holds a 6-point lead over Republican Senator Thom Tillis in this Senate race poll. That’s less than a 10-point lead last month in a key race for Democrats’ hopes of retaking the Senate.)
I must note that all of these results are within the margin of error, although they are consistent with poll averages which give Biden a 2-3 point lead in Florida and North Carolina and a uniform career in Georgia.
Keep in mind that Trump almost certainly needs to take all of these states to win. Biden would like to win at least one, although it’s easy to fill his map without taking it into account.
The failure of state polls to show rapid movement towards Trump is again the opposite of what was happening in 2016.
As political analyst Bill Scher demonstrated, state polls pushed Trump higher in the final weeks of the 2016 election.
Apparently, people didn’t believe the polls back then.
Today, those same polls have Biden ahead and in a clear position to win unless there is a development in the coming days.
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