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In his campaign for the presidency, Joe Biden proposed the most aggressive plan to tackle climate change of any major party candidate and made climate justice part of his concluding argument. But its goal of making the U.S. carbon neutral by 2050 is based on major action by a Democrat-controlled Congress, which doesn’t seem likely – or at least not certain, pending the outcome of two ballot races. in the Senate in Georgia in January.
“It won’t be that ambitious, there are no two ways to do it,” says Gene Karpinski, president of the League of Conservation Voters.
However, he and others think Biden will be able to take meaningful executive action and possibly forge some compromise even as the Senate continues to be controlled by Kentucky Republican Mitch McConnell, a friend of coal.
Reverse Trump’s rollbacks
The change at the top couldn’t be more dramatic as President Trump has repeatedly questioned climate science and overturned dozens of Obama-era climate rules aimed at boosting fossil fuel production. A Biden administration could move to reverse much of this.
Among many other things, Biden said he will stop leasing any new oil and gas rights to federal land and water. It could also direct agencies to tighten emissions standards for the electric sector, to push it towards its net-zero emissions target by 2035. And it could raise fuel economy standards for cars and trucks to accelerate the transition to electric vehicles. .
Obviously, just as Obama and then Trump saw, executive action is subject to legal challenge and Biden will face a judiciary full of more conservative appointees who could favor deregulation. Even if his policies survive, they could be reversed again by a future president.
Reaffirm the global leadership of the United States
Biden could have more immediate influence by using foreign policy to push for climate action. He has already promised to re-enter the historic Paris climate deal as soon as he takes office. Trump announced his intention to withdraw from the deal in 2017; which went into effect the day after the US presidential election, after a mandatory waiting period.
Biden could also rejoin the United States in the World Health Organization, which can help address public health risks from global warming. And it could use trade agreements and other international agreements to pressure countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, promote clean energy technology, or limit deforestation, for example.
Reaching through the corridor
Climate legislation would be more lasting than enforcement, but it could prove much more difficult. However, many expect Biden to try hard, as he has focused much of his political career on reaching all the way down the hall.
“I am optimistic about the prospects of actually getting something in Congress on climate change in the next couple of years,” says Scott Segal, energy law partner and lobbying firm Bracewell, whose clients include fossil fuel companies.
First, Segal points out that the industry is still moving towards a clean energy economy. Under pressure in part from consumer demand, a number of public services have set their own zero-carbon targets and some oil companies promise to invest more in renewable energy. A growing list of large companies, along with cities and states, are also setting aggressive targets for carbon neutrality.
“It’s not like there would have been the same level of backlash, economically, as it might have been if we talked about it 15 or 20 years ago,” he says.
Segal suggests there may be a bipartisan agreement on things like batteries and energy storage, carbon capture and clean energy standards for motor vehicles.
Biden’s climate plan plans to invest $ 2 trillion over four years in a wide range of environmental projects. Allies are hoping he can scratch some of this in various grocery bills and say that some things should be easy to sell.
“Investing in renewable energy and energy efficiency generates more than twice as many jobs as investing in fossil fuels,” said Andrew Steer, president and CEO of the World Resources Institute.
Meanwhile, there is something else that may continue to shift the political dynamic.
“Climate change will continue to get worse,” says Michael Brune, executive director of the Sierra Club. “The impacts of climate change will become even more serious, even more evident, even more damaging.”
2020 is on track to be one of the hottest years on record, and that heat has contributed to unprecedented fires and a relentless hurricane season. Climate scientists say drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are soon needed to avoid even more catastrophic impacts.
Two-thirds of Americans – including the majority of Republicans – say they want the government to do more on climate change. The question is whether Biden can convince a divided Congress to take this into account and finally act in a meaningful way.
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