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Democrat turns to the vote and leads in three of the four key states. Trump’s victory seems like a mirage.
At eight in the morning, at 13 in Portugal, Fox News, the Trumpist television channel, opened the news in this way: “Joe Biden is sitting on the brink of victory and can only wait. The roads to President Trump’s victory are now less and they are tighter “- and the face of the presenter, who then charged the numbers of the turnaround, could not hide the growing feeling that the incumbent will not be re-elected and that the next American president will make him a Democrat.
Then Trump goes down in history: he will be the eleventh president, out of 45, not to pass his first term, like Ford, Carter and Bush Sr. After an election night in which we saw a red mirage and it became inaccurate that Donald Trump could , as in 2016, overturning the elections, four days later, the slow but unstoppable blue democratic wave is invading the country.
Current situation: Biden has 264 votes in the constituency; Trump is 214 years old; the number of victories is 270, which gives the majority 538 high school votes. With four states still running (Arizona is already blue, Fox and AP say since the dawn of the election), the Democrat has three of those four avenues open to victory and only needs one.
It could already be Nevada (6 electoral votes; it leads with over 20,000 votes); it could be Pennsylvania (20 grades in high school), the day before yesterday it was up by half a million and now it leads by over 14,000, in a spectacular turn; it could be Georgia, the “orange state” that the Democrats have not won since 1992 and which also went from red to blue in 24 hours (Biden has 1,546 votes, but has continued to grow by the time this edition closes) . North Carolina alone, with 95% of the ballots already counted, continues to point towards Trump (+ 76 thousand votes).
What, then, are President Trump’s ways of victory? A mirage. And very forced: it would have to win, necessarily, the four states still in dispute, including small Nevada – and even so it would be a narrow victory, for a total of 271 votes.
Tell on the street
Once here, Trump’s battle no longer appears to be electoral, but purely judicial, with the Republican candidate’s campaign trying everything to get the decision in court.
There are now several lawsuits trying to aim for scrutiny in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia and even Michigan, where Joe Biden leads with 50.5% versus 47.9%, when 98% of newsletters are reported. The intention to stop counting due to difficult access by its own observers has already been rejected by the Michigan Federal Court, as has the suspicion of counting in Georgia – but here, Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger announced yesterday, a recount because the difference between the candidates is very short. “In Georgia, therefore, the elections could be postponed until almost the end of the month.
Another lawsuit, in Wisconsin, will ask for a recount of votes, based on a difference of less than 1%. In Pennsylvania, which is the most contested state, lawsuits have already begun to delay the count, forcing the votes received after election day to do a long check, remaining in a sort of quarantine and not adding up the totals for now. Here too Trump is trying to push the decision to the Supreme Court.
Will Trump concede?
So when is the official declaration of victory expected? It’s the million dollar answer that no one dares to guess. But there are two fundamental dates: December 14, the Electoral College is obliged to collect and ratify the votes; and on January 20, 2021, the 46.0 US president is to take office – otherwise the decision is made in the House of Representatives, the Democratic-dominated lower section of Congress.
Given this scenario, when will Trump admit defeat? “The president has no plans to grant an election,” a senior aide told Fox News last night. “He is simply skeptical. In the end, we believe he will have to concede, but for now it has not arrived yet,” the assistant said. Above all because there are already representatives of the Republican Party who are demanding respect for democracy.
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