[ad_1]
(CNN) – With the presidential race drawing to a close amid a furious pandemic, Democratic candidate Joe Biden maintains a substantial lead over President Donald Trump across the country, according to a new CNN poll conducted by the SSRS.
Among the likely voters, 54% support Biden and 42% Trump. Biden has had an advantage in all CNN polls over the showdown since 2019. And since spring, he has held a statistically significant lead in all high-quality national polls.
Although the elections will ultimately be decided by state results, which are led by the Electoral College, Biden’s national leadership is broader than any presidential candidate has had in more than two decades in the final days of the campaign.
The poll offers no indication that Trump’s four-year re-election campaign has managed to rally him substantial new supporters since his narrow victory in the 2016 election.
Barring major changes in the landscape in the final days of the contest, Trump’s chances of closing the gap depend heavily on turnout on election day. The poll finds that among those who have already voted (64% Biden vs 34% Trump) or are planning to vote early but had not yet done so at the time of the interview (63% Biden vs 33% Trump), Biden has nearly two thirds of support. Yet Trump leads between 59% and 36% of those who say they want to vote on election day.
The demographic chasms that have defined the nation’s politics for the past four years continue. Women break sharply for Biden, 61% versus 37%. Among men, it’s an almost equal split, 48% for Trump and 47% for Biden. Black voters support the Democrat by nearly 50 points, 71 percent versus 24 percent, while white voters split 50 percent for Trump versus 48 percent for Biden.
Those nearly even numbers among men and white voters mask significant divisions for education among whites and race between the sexes. Black women (77% Biden vs 21% Trump) and white women (54% Biden vs 45% Trump) clash with Biden, as do black men (64% Biden vs 28% Trump). White men, on the other hand, prefer Trump at 56% versus 41%.
Those with bachelors prefer Biden by 30 points, while those without bachelor’s degrees split equally. Among white voters, the difference is greater. White college voters prefer Biden 58% to 40%. Those white voters who don’t have a four-year title are a mirror, Trump’s 58% versus Biden’s 40%. Among white voters with titles, the gender gap is relatively small, but it’s a 38-point yawn between untitled white women (49% Biden vs 49% Trump) and white men with no titles (68% Trump vs 30% Biden) .
And seniors, who changed direction from Democrats in the 2018 election, are firmly in Biden’s corner in this poll. Overall, 55% of likely voters aged 65 and over support the Democrat, 44% Trump. Biden also leads by a wide margin among voters under 35 (68% Biden vs 30% Trump), while voters aged 35-64 are equally divided between the two candidates (48% support each candidate ).
The president’s approval rate in the survey is 42% approval and 55% disapproval for all adults. Among the likely voters, it is similar, 42% approve and 56% disapprove. The numbers have barely changed in the past year, with an approval number hovering between 40% and 45% in all but one of 12 polls conducted by CNN since October 2019. The numbers now don’t differ much from the first rating of Trump’s approval in a CNN poll in 2017, when 44% approved and 53% disapproved.
Only about 4 in 10 Americans say things are going well in the country right now (39%). That number has only dropped twice in the re-election years since 1980: in 1992 (35% said it was doing well) and in 1980 (32% said it was doing well).
All the data points to an election that is a referendum on an unpopular president, and a sizable portion of supporters of both candidates are making their own decisions based on their feelings towards Trump. Among Biden supporters, 48% say they vote more against Trump than Biden, while 48% say it is for Biden and not against the president. While this is still a huge anti-Trump vote, it’s a shift in favor of a pro-Biden vote from previous polls of the cycle. On the other hand, nearly 8 out of 10 Trump supporters (79%) say their votes are for the president and not against Biden (17%).
Although the message of Trump’s campaign in the final weeks of the campaign has been inexorably negative about Biden. The poll suggests that there is little difference in the former vice president’s perceptions. The Democratic candidate’s favorable rating in the poll remains largely positive: 55% of likely voters have a favorable opinion and 42% unfavorable, about the same as in early October. Trump’s figures are as negative as earlier this month: 57% have an unfavorable opinion of him, while 41% have a favorable opinion.
LEE: ANALYSIS | Trump has bet against science and voters are making their judgments
In 2016, voters who held unfavorable views on both Trump and Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton sided in favor of Trump, according to exit polls. But that voter pool is smaller with this year’s candidates, from 18% in CNN polls to exit in 2016 to 4% now. The majority have a favorable opinion of Biden but not of Trump (51%), while only 37% have a favorable opinion of Trump but not of Biden.
Biden holds an advantage over Trump as the candidate most likely to join the country (60% Biden vs 34% Trump), who is more honest and trustworthy (54% vs 37%), who cares about people like you ( 54% versus 40%) and this will keep Americans safe from harm (52% versus 45%). However, likely voters are divided as to which candidate has the stamina and keenness to be president (47% says Trump, 46% Biden), a point of interest for Trump, who beat Biden at his age. throughout the campaign.
Potential voters are more likely to consider a candidate’s positions on matters important to their vote than the candidate’s leadership and personal qualities. But the subset that focuses on personal qualities breaks sharply with Biden (71% support Biden, 27% Trump), while those who say the issues are more critical prefer Trump (54% Trump vs 43% Biden).
In general, however, Biden is often seen as the candidate with a clear plan to solve the country’s problems, 54% say Biden, 41% Trump. And the former vice president has an advantage over Trump as more reliable in handling racial inequality (60% Biden vs 36% Trump), the coronavirus epidemic (57% vs 39%), health care (57% vs. 41%), crime and security (52% vs.46%) and Supreme Court appointments (51% vs.44%). However, Trump regained an advantage in managing the economy (51% Trump vs 46% Biden).
More generally, the majority of likely voters believe Biden’s policy proposals can lead the country in the right direction (53%), while the majority say Trump’s proposals point in the wrong direction (53%).
And all of this is taking place in the context of a growing coronavirus pandemic. Eight months after much of the country shut down to curb the spread of the virus, 50% of Americans say the worst of that epidemic is yet to come. Only half say they feel comfortable returning to their normal routine. Furthermore, 40% say the economy is still in recession due to the virus, while only 29% say the economy is starting to recover.
In all these measures on the country’s position in the fight against the coronavirus, Biden’s voters and Trump’s voters have completely opposite views. Among Biden supporters, 77% say the worst of the pandemic is yet to come, while 78% of Trump voters believe the worst has been left behind. More than 8 in 10 Trump supporters (84%) say they feel comfortable getting back to their normal routine today, while 76% of Biden voters are not. And 64% of Biden supporters say the economy is still getting worse, while 62% of Trump voters believe it is on the rise.
The CNN poll was conducted by the SSRS from October 23-26 on a random national sample of 1,005 adults contacted by landline or cell phones by a live interviewer, including 886 probable voters. The full sample results have a sampling error margin of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points; it is more or less 3.8 points for the results among the probable voters.
Source link
