Arrest in the United States: Republicans seek a way out

An existing section of the border fortification between the Imperial County, California and Mexico. (AP Photo / Matt York, File)

The partial closure of the American federal administration (Government Shutdown) has reached its 24th day, making it the longest in history. The longest previous stop was canceled in 1996 on the 22nd day. So far, however, there is no solution in sight, since the Pièce de Résistance – the approximately $ 5.7 billion that President Trump asks for to build a wall on the southern border of the United States – could be bypassed. with satisfaction of Trump and the Democrats.

A recent poll by the Washington Post and the ABC broadcaster indicates who blames the majority of Americans for closure and how much interest there is in a wall (or fortification of the metal boundary). The survey shows that a majority (54 percent) continue to reject the wall. However, this group became significantly smaller than in January 2018, when still 63% of respondents had been against the construction of the wall. Today, 42% of respondents are supported, compared to only 34% a year ago. Republican support grew more, from 71% to 87%.

However, as far as guilt is concerned, Republicans are hurting. 53% of respondents see the mistake made by President Trump and the Republicans in Congress. Only 29 percent see the Democrats' fault. Thirteen percent blame both sides for the stalemate that American politics is currently facing. Interestingly enough, the percentages exactly match the survey numbers at the 16-day closing of 2013 under President Obama.

An explanation of the state of emergency at the border by President Trump, in order to free up the budget funds for the wall, would only support 31 percent of the respondents; 66 percent reject it.

However, perhaps the announcement of the border emergency could be the only possibility, to bring American politics out of the impasse. So far, the two sides have not moved one towards the other. For electoral tactics, ahead of the presidential election in 2020, both President Trump and the Democrats should now find it very difficult to make concessions on the budget issue.

A signal that Senate Republicans are worried about the potential negative impact of the closure of their party is a weekend initiative by influential Senator Lindsey Graham, who heads the Judiciary Committee and is considered a confidant of President Trump . He suggested as a way out, temporarily suspending the arrest. The disused parts of the federal administration would therefore be financed for a limited period, while at the same time negotiations with the Democrats would continue. If he goes out again, Trump could call the border emergency in a few weeks.

But even the proposal of the famous friend of the party of Trump has not brought any results. He had rejected Senator Lindsey Graham's suggestion, Trump told reporters at the White House on Monday before traveling to New Orleans.

Graham had clearly hoped to still prevent the proclamation of the emergency. Such a state policy is problematic because it interferes with the Congressional budgetary sovereignty, with the rather weak justification, there is an emergency at the border. Objectively speaking, it is hard to argue that the border situation has become more serious in the last two years, apart from the increase in the number of Central American migrants. Many of them do not want to enter the United States illegally, but ask for asylum at the border. The perception that there is no state of emergency at the border also corresponds to the statements of the previous investigation.

The proclamation of the emergency to get around Congress could be taken by a future president as a precedent for a similar action. Trump and the Democrats should face a long dispute before the courts if the president asks for a state of emergency.