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Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan now wants to reconnect with the EU after numerous provocations. Thanks to the newly elected president of the United States Joe Biden.
Turkey sees its future in Europe, President Tayyip Erdogan recently said – not without ulterior motives.
Photo: François Lenoir (Reuters)
Statesmen who want to survive politically must be adaptable. Most of the time, shameless flexibility is enough; sometimes, unscrupulous ruthlessness is required. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan offers an example. In recent months and years he has not missed an opportunity to provoke his friends, allies and neighbors, even to provoke them to the point of blood. The wars in Syria, Libya, Iraq and the South Caucasus, the policy of neo-Ottoman gunboats in the Mediterranean, the purchase of Russian weapons, the blackmail of Europe in the refugee policy and now the torpedoing of a reunification of Cyprus: Erdogan does not made friends. At best, it is considered a beacon of hope in Azerbaijan, Pakistan or the Gaza Strip.
The judiciary must be reformed, the rule of law in Turkey must become his.
However, Erdogan now presents himself as a reformer: Turkey “sees its future in Europe,” he says. Relations with Russia can never replace “the friendship with the USA that has grown over many years”. The judiciary must be reformed, the rule of law in Turkey must become his. The president ate the chalk. All he lacked was to call the hated Greeks their beloved brother people.
Erdogan’s behavior is transparent: he fears the new president of the United States Joe Biden. He looked at the European Union, touched by the French, Greeks and Cypriots for further comparison. He does not know how long he will be able to count on the match with Russian President Vladimir Putin in his wars in Syria, Libya and the Caucasus, in which both sides are combative, but always and in perfect agreement in equal parts. Make a cut.
Now Trump no longer holds his hand on the Turkish ruler.
Political gambler Erdogan may now be at the end of his policy of ongoing provocation. It was only possible because US President Donald Trump held his hand on the Turkish ruler and because the EU – as is often the case – was too divided to draw red lines. Now the Trump era is drawing to a close. Erdogan must expect a different tone to prevail in the White House soon. Election winner Biden will not have forgotten his own words of 2017: the Ankara man is “an autocrat”, he must “pay a price” for his brazen policies. If Biden wants Erdogan to pay, all he has to do is pave the way for the sanctions that Congress passed some time ago. This would be fatal for economically troubled Turkey.
No more friends in Brussels
Even in the otherwise docile European Union there is talk of punitive measures. Erdogan no longer has friends in Brussels. Greeks and Cypriots are calling for sanctions because they feel threatened in the Mediterranean. French President Emmanuel Macron raises the mood against Ankara. German Chancellor Angela Merkel now also seems to regard the Turks as a hopeless case. But it is precisely at this moment that the notorious troublemaker does what no one expected of him: he presents himself as a reformer.
The decisive factor is not why Erdogan moves, but that he moves.
The fact that this alleged turnaround was born out of necessity and appears implausible does not deprive it of any value for future relations with Turkey. The decisive factor is not why Erdogan moves, but that he moves. Politics can be made from this. Neither Washington nor Brussels should hesitate to take advantage of Ankara’s emerging weakness and exert massive pressure to force Turkey to behave in a more compatible way, half in line with international norms. Erdogan aims high, but also reacts to tenacity: until now he has given in every time Putin has knocked on the Kremlin table.
With all of this, Erdogan’s options for turning back on relations with the West are limited, even if he agrees. In addition to imponderable foreign policy, Turkish domestic policy is also very worrying for him. The economic situation is miserable. The crown pandemic is shaking the country, a global blockade would be almost unbearable, but it could become imperative given the growing number of victims.
The poll numbers are decreasing
Erdogan’s poll numbers are getting worse and worse, he can still govern only because the right-wing MHP party gives him a majority in parliament through tolerance. The ultra-nationalists, the big Turks and the Kurdish haters of the MHP have the Turkish head of state in their hands until it finds a new government partner. They do not want to abandon the policy of provocation. They want a lot more.
These are the difficulties in dealing with Ankara: strong pressure from outside is needed for a change in Turkish politics. But then you only decide internally. And here any change without early elections, with or without Erdogan, seems very difficult.
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