American elections: these states are what matter now

In several states of the United States there is still no decision: what does it mean for the chances of candidates? What is the status and which combination would you win?

The starting positions do not seem to be very different: according to NEP / Edison electoral experts, Joe Biden still lacks 46 votes to the majority of the constituency of 270 voters via Reuters – Donald Trump even 57 voters.

Many winning combinations are possible for Biden. An almost classic approach would be to recapture the effectively Democratic “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – which Hillary Clinton lost to Trump in 2016. With them she would have gotten exactly 270 votes. However, the situation in these states is still unclear. But Biden’s chances are currently not bad in Georgia (16 voters), Arizona (eleven voters) and Nevada (six voters).

Trump, on the other hand, must hope that even if he wins in the traditionally republican states of Georgia (16 voters) and North Carolina (15 voters), at least two more larger states will fall to him.

The situation in detail

Pennsylvania (20 voters): Here Trump is at 76 percent which counts very clearly with about eleven points ahead of Biden. Here too, however, as in the United States as a whole, many voters voted in advance by letter. According to the Elections project website, more than 60% of them have been registered as Democratic voters and most of these votes have not yet been counted.

Governor Tom Wolf said there were still about a million votes to count, particularly the mail order votes, whose polls suggest Biden should be more inclined to vote. These votes can be counted up to three days after Election Day in Pennsylvania if they are postmarked on November 3.

In 2016 Trump surprisingly won in Pennsylvania by just 0.7 points. This year, Biden, who was born in Pennsylvania, was usually a few points ahead of Trump on average.

In Michigan (16 voters) Trump was temporarily ahead of Biden with over 51% on election night. At the moment, however, Biden has a subtle advantage: according to Edison Research, after counting 89 percent of the votes, he comes to 49.2 percent and Trump 49.1 percent. Votes cast before the election – possibly predominantly by Democratic voters, for example in the metropolis of Detroit – could only be counted on election day. A result is therefore only expected late.

Trump won truly Democratic Michigan in 2016 with just 0.2 percentage points of difference. On average in the poll, Biden had a five to eight point lead before the election.

Georgia (16 voters) it has been firmly in the hands of Republicans for decades, but even here the Democratic electorate has grown. In the pre-election polls, Biden and Trump were more or less even.

Trump currently only has a 2.2 point lead over Biden, with over 92% of the votes already counted. Rumors are still missing from Atlanta and its populous suburbs because of a burst water pipe – strongholds of the Democrats. Results are expected today: The New York Times sees Biden’s chances at 64%.

North Carolina (15 voters): After counting 95% of the votes, Trump leads with just under 1.4 percentage points. A result was actually expected for election night, now it could come today. The “New York Times” assumes an 86% chance of a Trump victory.

There was also a close race here in the polls: Trump had a three-point lead in 2016.

Wisconsin (10 voters): On election night, Trump was initially ahead in the vote count, then Biden got closer and closer to his rival. Biden is currently leading by 0.7 points, with a tally of 97 percent. Papers for postal votes could only be registered and counted on election day: according to experts, Democrats could be ahead of votes not yet counted. There may be results today.

Four years ago, Trump surprisingly won Democratic Wisconsin with just around 22,700 votes. On average in the poll, Biden had between six and eight percentage points ahead of the election.

Arizona (11 voters): Here Biden is currently 3.4 points ahead of Trump – 99 percent is counted. US broadcaster Fox News thought its chances were so stable hours ago that it attributed the status to the Democrats. Trump won Arizona in 2016, as did most of the Republican presidential candidates. In recent years, however, the state had become more democratic: in this year’s polls, for example, Biden was mostly present.

Nevada (7 voters): Biden’s lead is only 0.6 points and the tally is 86%. The electoral authority said there will be a detailed update on the status of the tally on Thursday. Biden had been in front of the polls almost constantly and the state had gone to Clinton in 2016.