American elections: Donald Trump could remain president despite defeat

The horror scenario of the election: Trump loses and still remains in office

Donald Trump says the Democrats wanted to “steal” his election victory. It could work the other way around: Republicans are tricking Joe Biden into victory. And this in a “legal” way.

The US presidential count is becoming a nightmare. Almost everything still points to a win for Joe Biden. But litigation and recounting are planned in the contested states. It may take some time before a definitive result is available.

First, it’s all clear: Donald Trump declared himself the winner during his White House appearance on Friday night. All votes counted after election day were “illegal,” the president said in flagrant disregard for the democratic rules of the game that can only disturb those who don’t understand Trump’s character.

“Trump’s refusal to accept defeat is impossible or even probable – it is simply inevitable,” writes Lawrence Douglas, a professor of constitutional law at the prestigious Amherst College in Massachusetts, in his book “Will he go?” In it he faces the scenario of an unclear electoral outcome.

Undemocratic process

In this case, the truly disturbing thing could happen: Joe Biden wins both the majority of votes and (apparently!) In Electoral College, yet Donald Trump remains fairly “legally” in office. Responsible for such a horrible scenario is the fact that the constitution and laws do not adequately regulate the election of the president.

“The constitution does not guarantee a peaceful change of power, it presupposes it. The rules are assumed to be followed automatically, “said Lawrence Douglas in an interview with Watson. Donald Trump doesn’t want to do that. In this case, a confusing, contradictory and ultimately undemocratic process begins.

Concession speech

The crux of a regulated transfer of power is the so-called concession speech. If possible, the loser will stand before his supporters on election night and admit defeat. It is a purely symbolic act, neither the constitution nor any law requires such a speech. But it triggers everything else.

Similar to a declaration of surrender to war, the concession speech is a signal to your troops to lay down their weapons and stop fighting. This has almost always worked in US history. Hillary Clinton also passed four years ago and admitted her completely unexpected defeat to Donald Trump.

Particularly symbolic was the speech in the contested elections in 2000. The Supreme Court had stopped the recount in Florida with a controversial verdict. Democrat Al Gore then broke off the fight, although many around him had advised against him. But Gore wanted to spare the country another ordeal.

Electoral College

“You can’t imagine at all that Donald Trump would behave the same way,” Douglas said in an interview with Watson. The next step is therefore the turn of the Electoral College. The body is expected to elect the president on 14 December. Its composition is actually determined by the election result.

However, if Donald Trump goes sideways, it could lead to chaos, as former Obama adviser Van Jones describes in a YouTube video. The procedure is so complicated that most Americans don’t see it. In any case, it could happen that not even the Electoral College can determine a winner.

House of Representatives

In such a case, the House of Representatives must elect the president on January 6. At first glance this is good news for Joe Biden, as Democrats will also be in the majority in the newly elected House. But now a rule comes into play that finally brings the procedure to Absurdistan.

Because it is not the plenary that determines the president, but the delegations of the 50 states. And the Republicans are the majority there! They could act regardless of the election result, as Van Jones points out, and help underdog Donald Trump stay in the White House.

As I said, all of this would be completely legal. This process shows the dysfunctionality of the alleged US model of democracy. Obviously the resistance would be programmed in this case. Van Jones calls for nonviolent protests in his video, but it is debatable whether it would remain that way in highly polarized America.

Waiting for McConnell?

An escalation can only be prevented if President Trump surrenders and accepts his defeat. His narcissism makes him unlikely, but perhaps those around him can lead him to reason. Or the Republicans in Congress, where criticism has just begun to be heard.

The key figure would be Mitch McConnell, the Senate Majority Leader. He is a cynical man of power, as was recently demonstrated by the unscrupulous succession plan imposed on the late judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg. But his relationship with Donald Trump is considered distant, they form an alliance of purpose.

McConnell could convince Trump to retire. If not, he and the Republicans may choose to respect the will of the electorate and help Joe Biden win when the showdown actually comes. Doing so, however, would attract the ire of Donald Trump’s “fan club”, on which they depend.

As I said, it’s the worst case scenario. At best, there will be an orderly change of power even without Trump’s concession speech. At best, the secret services should kick the president out of the White House. Either way, the next few weeks could be stormy.