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63-year-old Iranian nuclear physicist Mohsen Fachrisadeh was killed on Friday in a suburb of Tehran. Today he was buried. The Iranian leadership blames the US and Israel for the attack.
SRF News: Iran wants retaliation “at the right time”. What does it mean?
Adnan Tabatabai: That means you don’t want to act immediately or you don’t want to put yourself under the pressure of having to act immediately. In the political context with a very radical US government and the situation in the region, Iran wonders if the time for retaliation would be wise.
Could it even be that there is no retaliation?
Maybe nothing will happen until US President Joe Biden is inaugurated. Iran is playing with this ambiguity to increase psychological pressure.
Even after General Ghassem Soleimani was killed, nothing happened. Doesn’t the Iranian leadership make itself incredible?
There has been criticism from various sides of the political spectrum that this formula of strategic patience can be interpreted as a weakness. In the case of General Soleimani in particular, however, it was agreed that the Americans would be driven out of the Middle East in revenge. This is a long-term project.
According to an Iranian television report, an Israeli weapon was used in the attack. Do you know who is behind the attack?
It was made clear enough that this was Israeli intelligence. Regardless, there is a report in the “New York Times”, which refers to intelligence sources in the United States, who said they were Israelis.
Why the Israelis and not the Americans or anyone else?
For one thing, I think Israeli politics is more likely to claim the right to kill an Iranian nuclear scientist than US intelligence. Israelis see themselves more threatened by the Iranian nuclear program. On the other hand, it is more conceivable that the Israeli foreign intelligence service Mossad carries out operations in the region. But he must have coordinated it with Washington.
How does this affect the Iranian nuclear program?
Technically, this shouldn’t have any effect. An important nuclear researcher was killed with Fachrisadeh. But in recent years it has institutionalized the orientation of the nuclear program. They knew he was a possible target, and working with a new generation of researchers was designed so that a single kill won’t change anything.
Will the nuclear program continue as before?
It will go on. In many discussions in Tehran as well as internationally, it is assumed that this killing was not aimed at the nuclear program. But to avoid a political rapprochement between Tehran and Washington with Joe Biden. Because for Iran’s regional rivals – Israel, but also Saudi Arabia and the UAE – it is always a concern that Iran will be upgraded economically and appear stronger internationally again. This is exactly what happened with the 2015 nuclear deal.
Is there any hope that the deal will be reinstated if there is no retaliation and the new US president is inaugurated?
There’s a possibility. In both Washington and Tehran there will be people in government who know exactly what drives the other side. At the same time there will be many actors who want to prevent rapprochement.
The interview was conducted by Beat Soltermann.
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