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The study, published last week in Nature, tracked the movement of 98 million people in metropolitan areas of Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, San Francisco and Washington DC.
The researchers concluded that in areas where the infection rate is highest, a link can be established with the movement of people to very specific ‘points of interest’. In particular, crowded commercial spaces in areas where the population has low incomes.
“Our model predicts that a small minority of points of interest are responsible for a large majority of infections and that limiting the maximum capacity at each of these points of interest is more effective than uniformly reducing mobility,” the study reads. . “We also found that out groups with greater financial difficulties have not been able to reduce mobility as much as other groups and that the points of interest they visit are more crowded and therefore at greater risk ”.
This research work strengthens public health decisions to reduce crowding in public spaces and close some businesses to control the rate of Covid-19 infection.
For New York Times, one of the researchers, Jure Leskovec, said the study also found that restaurants are the most worrying spaces. “By far the riskiest spaces,” he said. “About four times more than gyms or cafes, followed by hotels”.
Just this week, at 360 on RTP 3, pulmonologist António Diniz explained that the risk was higher in restaurants because two essential respiratory hygiene measures are automatically eliminated. The closeness, with people often face to face and the lack of the mask, which is removed in order to eat.
The Stanford University study also concluded that the risk is higher in restaurants in deprived areas as the space tends to be smaller and fuller.
Similarly, stores in low-income areas have 60 percent more people per square foot, and people tend to stay longer, the study indicates. Again, the risk is greater.
Researchers therefore warn of the risk of opening all businesses to 100%. The impact on the infection rate would be exponential. “The first important conclusion we reached with this model is that if people continued their lives without restrictions, a third of the population in America’s 10 largest cities would be infected after a month,” said Jure Leskovec.
The solution, he adds, is to open up the economy at different levels.
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