[ad_1]
D.The result alarmed: in its most recent report on Iran’s nuclear activities, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) concluded that the clerical regime now has more than 2,400 kilograms of enriched uranium. This is twelve times more than he was entitled to under the 2015 nuclear deal. According to the IAEA, this figure could be enough to build three atomic bombs if Tehran further enriches the material.
But that’s not all: the report goes on to state that inspectors have discovered uranium particles in an undeclared facility. Tehran’s explanations of how the nuclear material arrived would be “not credible”. The IAEA calls for a “full and quick explanation” for this.
The report launches new shockwaves across the Middle East, already troubled after the election of Joe Biden as the next president of the United States. Because unlike Europe, where the victory of the Democrats was celebrated, in Israel and in the Gulf there are fears of a new phase of American pacification against Tehran. “We are worried,” diplomatic circles in Israel say. “But the Saudis are definitely scared.”
The nuclear deal was the brainchild of the Obama administration, of which Biden was vice president. In 2015, Iran pledged to reduce its uranium enrichment and to have it control, in return, the United States, the United Nations and the EU gradually lifted economic sanctions against the regime. Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates protested above all against it.
After all, the Shia regime threatens the supremacy of Sunni royal houses in the Gulf and has repeatedly declared the destruction of the Jewish state as its goal. Donald Trump responded. It was mainly Israeli intelligence indications that Iran is breaking its obligations that led Trump to unilaterally withdraw from the agreement in 2018. The United Nations as well as Germany, France, Great Britain, China and Russia joined it.
Nightmare for Alliance against Iran
Future president Biden has already announced that he wants to return to the agreement. “I will offer Tehran a credible path to return to negotiations,” he wrote in a post for CNN ahead of the election. A nightmare for the anti-Iranian alliance.
Opponents of the deal argue that Iran is not a reliable negotiating partner and is secretly continuing to build the atomic bomb. The control mechanisms of the agreement are incomplete. It also excludes the Iranian missile program.
The lifting of sanctions agreed in the agreement strengthens the “main sponsor of terrorism”, which destabilizes the entire region with its terrorist Hezbollah militia and contacts with terrorist organizations such as the Muslim Brotherhood. “Better no deal than a bad deal,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at the time.
Proponents, on the other hand, argue that Iranian nuclear activity cannot be stopped anyway, but that the deal is the best way to extend time to a nuclear-capable Iran. The latest news should confirm both camps: opponents in their warning that Iran is lying.
The IAEA report does not provide any information on the location of the plant in question, where inspectors found uranium particles, according to the report. According to diplomatic circles, it could be in the Turkusabad district of Tehran. This place, of all places, had already been designated by Israel as a suspect site for secret nuclear activities.
Biden, on the other hand, said during his campaign that it was Trump’s exit from the nuclear deal that had accelerated Iranian activities. At the time Tehran had stated in response that it would no longer adhere to all its obligations. Since 2018, it has enriched eight times more uranium than the nuclear deal allowed.
Biden’s foreign policy advisers describe the return of the United States as a “top priority”. They stress that they want to negotiate tougher terms for Iran. It is not yet clear which strategy Biden will choose. And to what extent it is actually prepared to welcome Iran. But his opponents don’t expect that either. Immediately after the election victory, the Trump administration tried everything to block the dreaded path back to the Obama course for the next administration. And apparently there is a lot of support in the Middle East.
Trump’s new sanctions list
Trump wants to tighten the “maximum pressure” strategy on Iran again. It had already sanctioned Tehran’s oil exports and central economic sectors; support for terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah and Hamas is also punished.
His representative for Iran, Elliott Abrams, is currently traveling around the Middle East, meeting with the Israeli government, representatives of Saudi Arabia and the Emirates. “Axios” quotes Israeli sources, according to whom Trump wants to impose “as many sanctions as possible” on Iran until he has to leave the White House on January 20. As a result, with the support of Israel, its employees have compiled a list of Iranian companies that is expected to meet in the next ten weeks.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, expected in Israel next week, described the targets as “an international network of companies and individuals” that procured electronic components for a company under the control of the Iranian military. And he stressed that those who have done business with Iranian companies on the US sanctions list also face sanctions. More recently, Pompey had explicitly warned Germany, France and Great Britain.
Crucial: Trump no longer links sanctions only to Iran’s violations of the nuclear deal, but also to human rights violations and the promotion of terrorist groups. There are few sanctions that the next US administration cannot lift, says Naysan Rafati, an expert on Iran at the International Crisis Group. “But these are more difficult to get out of the way because you have to make it credible that terrorism is no longer a problem.”
Even Biden supporters acknowledge that Trump’s “maximum pressure” strategy created optimal conditions for the future US administration. The easing of sanctions that have brought Tehran to the brink of financial collapse could be an incentive for the regime to renegotiate.
However, the Iranian presidential elections are scheduled for June. Biden is expected to face even more difficult negotiating partners later on. “I don’t see why Iran should accept tougher terms,” says Raz Zektiven, an Iranian expert at the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies.
“Mainly because the economic relief from the original nuclear deal has had a less positive effect on the Iranian economy than Tehran had hoped for.” Iranian officials recently announced that they will initially seek “compensation” from Biden for the economic damage Trump sanctions do to them. they have inflicted.
In the Middle East, there is great concern that Biden will bet away the good cards his predecessor gave him. If there are indeed new negotiations with Iran, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia will ask for a say. And they will want to ensure that Iran’s missile program and “terrorist sponsorship” also become part of an improved deal.
Confrontation with Israel
Biden will need to show that he has his security interests in mind. Otherwise, Israel might feel compelled to launch a preemptive strike on Iran before it can actually build three atomic bombs. The Israeli settlement minister recently launched this threat. If Biden returns to the Obama deal without rectification, Tzachi Hanegbi said, “it will ultimately lead to a confrontation between Israel and Iran.”
.
[ad_2]
Source link
