Azerbaijan and Armenia: new ceasefire attempt in Nagorno-Karabakh

There is a new attempt to end the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh, this time negotiated at the highest level. But how long will the ceasefire last? There are already protests in Armenia.

In the conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region of the South Caucasus, the Prime Minister of Armenia and the President of Azerbaijan decided to end all fighting. The new ceasefire took place thanks to the mediation of Russian President Vladimir Putin. It should take effect in the morning at 1.00 local time (Monday, 22.00 CET). This was announced by the Kremlin on the night of the Interfax agency.

Putin said the deal is the basis for a long-term solution to the Karabakh problem. The Russian peacekeepers must now monitor the end of the fighting. As a result, both sides accepted such a controversial proposal.

According to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, the ceasefire will be monitored jointly by the Russian and Turkish peacekeepers. There will be a joint peace mission between Turks and Russians, Aliyev of the Interfax agency in Baku said overnight. On the Russian side, the soldiers would be deployed in 1960 for a five-year period with the possibility of an extension for another five years. Aliyev did not initially provide information on the number of Turkish soldiers.

Already three attempts at a ceasefire

So far there have been three ceasefire attempts. They all failed. But it is the first time that the heads of state and government have signed such an agreement. The agreement also provides for an exchange of prisoners. Both sides should exchange the remains of the slain soldiers. Refugees are expected to return home under the supervision of the United Nations.

Russian border troops take control of transport links between Karabakh and Armenia. Azerbaijan and Armenia have pledged to freeze their current positions, Putin said.

Protests already in Armenia

Spontaneous protests against the agreement have started in Armenia. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan spoke of a painful moment he had to sign the agreement. Protesters insulted him as a traitor and stormed and devastated his seat of government. “The text is painful for me personally and for our people,” Pashinyan wrote on Facebook. But after careful consideration and analysis of the situation, he decided to sign it, wrote Pashinyan. Observers saw this as a surrender.

To vent their frustration, protesters occupied the government building in the capital Yerevan that night, as videos showed on social networks, excerpts of which were shown on Armenian television. Protesters smashed furniture, doors and windows. Some have entered Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s office. It was reported that the protesters also wanted to visit Pashinyan’s residence.

The fighting has been going on since the end of September. The number of people killed by Nagorno-Karabakh on Monday rose from 44 to 1,221, authorities said. Baku does not provide any information on losses in the military due to censorship regulations during the war.

Azerbaijan lost control of the mountainous area with around 145,000 inhabitants in a war after the collapse of the Soviet Union some 30 years ago. Since 1994 there has been a fragile ceasefire. Azerbaijan invokes international law in the new war and is always seeking the support of its “brother state”, Turkey. Armenia, in turn, relies on Russia as a protecting power.