Decision on the 2020 US Elections: Will the 2000 Nightmare Repeat?

If the courts decide: will the nightmare of 2000 repeat itself?

Jürgen Bätz / dpa

After a chaotic month of waiting and accusations of fraud, one of the two candidates wins the US presidential election thanks to a court ruling. This is the nightmare that plagues some Americans: after a tight election with record turnout, the judges may finally decide.

There are two reasons why this bad dream cannot be dismissed as a fantasy: first, it was exactly the same in the 2000 election; And second, the lawyers are already scratching their feet ahead of the predictable tight outcome.

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Wild accusations of fraud, threats of lawsuits and requests for recount: all this within hours of the closing of the last polling stations, before the votes were counted everywhere.

US President Donald Trump has already declared himself the winner, his Democratic challenger Joe Biden was also confident of victory but warned to wait for the count. Given the tight results, a tough bickering seems almost inevitable in the coming weeks.

What can the courts do?

The courts cannot rule on the outcome of the elections, not even the Washington Supreme Court. Judges are not responsible for reviewing the results. However, local courts or higher level instances can decide on the legality of deadlines, on the rules of counting or on the validity of the results.

In the United States, complaints are always filed quickly and a lot. In the vast majority of election years, when a candidate has a good advantage, one or two lawsuits may not affect the election outcome. Given the predictable tight results in states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, this year may be different. Due to the majority vote, a candidate can theoretically secure a state with one vote.

Will it be Trump?

Trump has already talked about massive fraud on Wednesday ahead of the ongoing tally. “You can find votes for Biden everywhere: in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. So bad for our country, ”he wrote on Twitter. According to experts and studies, election fraud is extremely rare in the United States. Twitter immediately issued a warning to many of Trump’s messages and thus also limited the ability to spread the tweets.

Trump’s campaign team announced it would require a recount of votes in Wisconsin. In Michigan, they filed a lawsuit to stop the count. Same in Pennsylvania. In the three states together, the votes of 46 voters are given. A candidate needs 270 votes to win. Biden appeared to be leading Wednesday night (local time), but he should be close.

How do the parties react?

Senate Republican Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he found Trump’s announcement to continue the election campaign in court unproblematic. If the election result was close, “it happened before and it could happen this time too,” Trump’s confidant said. “Going to court is how we resolve uncertainties.”

The Democrats immediately solicited donations for legal fees. They are “ready to fight back” after Trump’s threats, Biden deputy candidate Kamala Harris wrote on Twitter. “Our work could go on for weeks and we need your help,” reads the appeal for donations. Democrats and Republicans had hired numerous lawyers before the election.

Does the Supreme Court have a say?

Quite possible. Some lawsuits are likely to be appealed by all courts and could end up in the Washington Supreme Court. Trump has a home advantage there: six of the nine life-appointed judges are considered Conservatives, three of whom the Republican himself has nominated.

Some complaints about the election had already reached the judges before the vote, mostly on rather technical issues. One question was, for example, whether a deadline for accepting ballot papers could be changed by a court or only by the parliament of the state concerned. There was no clear trend towards party membership in the judges’ decisions.

Conservative judge Amy Coney Barrett, who was only appointed at the end of October, abstained from several decisions. When they decided to accept the Pennsylvania postal ballots after election day, the judges expressly reserved the right to eventually address the issue of voting again.

What would be the worst case scenario?

For some observers this is a nightmare: What would happen if Biden Pennsylvania narrowly won with the help of late postal votes? If the judges quash the votes, Biden would lose the state’s 20 voters and possibly the election.

It’s a hypothetical scenario, but not out of nowhere: something similar happened in 2000. Whether George W. Bush or Al Gore would become the next president depended only on the outcome in the populous state of Florida. The legal battle over the outcome and the reports dragged on for a month before the Supreme Court. After that, Gore admitted defeat. Republican Bush won by 537 votes, secured the votes of the Florida electorate, and became president of the United States.

What impact would it have on the country?

Even before the election, Trump said he could only lose if there was “massive election fraud”. It therefore seemed impossible for him to admit defeat without a fight. It will have any lawsuit. The United States has therefore been under threat for very agitated weeks due to the virulent coronavirus pandemic. The division of the country into two rival political camps is likely to deepen and protests could also arise.

The hanging game could drag on for about a month: states must certify final results by December 8 and report them to Washington. This period, known as the “safe haven”, was crucial, for example, in 2000, when Gore decided to admit defeat. If the dispute continues beyond the deadline, it could get quite complicated. So Americans shouldn’t really breathe a sigh of relief until next year: the next president will have to be sworn in on January 20, according to the law.