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The Democratic dream of Joe Biden’s decisive victory on election night is gone, with everything hinging on four swinging states, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin – counting the postal votes, most of them Democrats, polls show – and Georgia, which tends towards Republicans but still lacks Atlanta, a predominantly Democratic city. The confrontation between Biden and Donald Trump has entered unknown terrain, turning into trench warfare. Armies of Republican and Democratic lawyers, who were preparing for this scenario long before the election, are advancing in court, after the president vowed to do whatever it takes to stop the count.
“We were preparing to win this election. Frankly, we won the election, ”Trump said in front of a crowd of euphoric supporters at the end of the evening. “This is a huge fraud for our nation,” he accused, without presenting any evidence. “Let’s go to the Supreme Court, we want all the votes to end.”
The president’s strategy is nothing new. For months he has been questioning the validity of the postal vote, suggesting a judicial opposition of this type. Trump went on to publicly justify that the appointment of conservative Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court would serve the judge to decide the elections.
“Once again, the president is lying to the American people and acting like a would-be despot,” tweeted Democrat Adam Schiff, leader of the congressional secretarial committee. “We will count every vote. And ignore the noise ”.
Chaotic scenarios To reach the much-desired 270 electoral college votes needed for re-election, Trump could lose to Michigan or Wisconsin, but never Georgia or Pennsylvania. “But the Republicans don’t even have to win; all they have to do is bond, ”wrote the New Yorker. “If the vote is not certified by December 8, states whose legislative power is controlled by Republicans can nominate voters, who are likely to vote for Trump.” This is the case with all swing states still in play.
For those who witnessed the dispute in Florida between Georgia W. Bush and Al Gore in the 2000 election, the feeling is déjà vu. With the entire election dependent on the state, which was on a tightrope between the two, what remained in memory were subsequent counting and recounting, which were stopped by the Supreme Court, leaving Bush with just 530 more votes than Al. Gore. What few remember is that, prior to the Supreme Court decision, the governor of the state, Jeb Bush – George’s brother – was already preparing to appoint Republican voters to the constituency, as can happen now, on a much larger scale.
“Let me explain how constituency works, add some nuances,” said J. Edwin Benton, professor of political science at the University of South Florida last week. “Who are these voters? Long before the elections, in every state, the Republican party and the Democrats nominated a certain number of people, who if their candidate wins the state will vote.
“There are two groups of voters, one of which is activated when your state certifies a candidate as an election winner,” Benton said. “But if the state doesn’t certify the election, those votes aren’t cast. They have about a month to get it right, “he warned.” I see Donald Trump trying to tie the vote count in court, with lawsuits, to the point that voters in states that support him can vote, but others can’t.
There is another possibility that it can cause even more chaos. The congress of state in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin is controlled by the Republicans, but its governors are Democrats. We may have both powers to certify their constituents, ending up with double the votes, so-called “dueling voters,” Reuters warned – something that has only happened twice in history, in the 1876 and 1960 elections.
“The scary thing is that any case would quickly go to the Supreme Court. And he has that sure vote, if the judges set aside scruples and integrity, ”laments Benton, who remembers well the dispute of 2000.
That election night, the professor had attended a radio show until dawn. “I went home, took a shower, went to teach. The students asked me: “This goes to the Supreme Court, who will win?”. Without batting an eye he said: “The Bush”. They asked me why I said it and I replied: “Tell us!” Five of the judges were appointed by Republicans, four by Democrats. The result followed the lines of the party. And Donald Trump does not forget this “, he warned.” The court should be neutral, objective. But, under their robes, the judges wear red or blue. “
The path to confusion After all, how did we get here? A few days ago, it looked like Joe Biden had everything he needed for a decisive victory on election night. He was ahead in national polls, well positioned in crucial states, and had received a wealth of funding, which allowed him to flood the swinging states with advertising.
Like Hillary Clinton in 2016, perhaps Biden sinned by overconfidence. It was enough for Trump to lose to Florida, or a handful of smaller states, to end his chances of re-election. Instead of focusing on just a few key states, Biden went on the offensive, betting resources to transform Republican bastions like Ohio, North Carolina, even Texas – it didn’t help him, he ended up losing them all, by too small a margin. He only managed to transform Arizona, a feeble consolation prize. You may still be able to overturn Georgia if you can get through the legal battles that lie ahead.
As soon as the results came in from Florida, it was clear it was going to be a long and tumultuous election week. Democrats were counting on securing this state’s significant Latin vote, but polls show far less support from this community for Biden than Clinton received in 2016.
The democratic candidate’s subsequent attempts to conquer the Latin community appear to have had no effect. Perhaps the most publicized of these attempts – for being widely ridiculed on social media – was when Biden, during a rally for the Puerto Rican community in Florida, pulled out his cell phone to play the song “Despacito”. Nor does the attention of Democrats in this state, which has spent more than $ 110 million on advertising since May, appear to have had the desired effect.
Trump’s message that Biden is a left-wing Trojan horse of Democrats, allegedly dangerous Communists, fits perfectly with the fears of prominent Cuban and Venezuelan communities in Florida, known for their conservatism, very critical of regimes. of left. in their countries of origin.
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