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AccuWeather’s summer 2020-2021 forecast in South America
The start of summer is just around the corner for South American residents and the upcoming season will bring some big changes that will set it apart from the last few summers across the continent. AccuWeather’s team of international meteorologists, led by veteran meteorologist Jason Nicholls, has released its forecast for the weather in South America this summer. After analyzing various weather patterns and the large-scale ongoing weather phenomenon, it has become apparent that one factor will play a major role in shaping the climate across South America in the coming season. “The moderate conditions in La Niña are expected to be the main driver for much of the season,” said Nicholls. The changes in sea surface temperature from the 1981-2010 average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean in September 2020 showed a large area of cooler-than-normal water. (Climate.gov) “La Niña is basically the cooling of surface waters in the central and / or eastern equatorial Pacific and the warming of surface waters in the western equatorial Pacific,” explained Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather long-range expert. “This causes changes in the surface and upper wind patterns that drive air masses around the world.” A region of South America will be heavily affected by this climatic phenomenon which will result in a very different summer from those of recent memory. Overall, the hot summer months can help slow the spread of the coronavirus as people will be able to spend more time outdoors and businesses, such as restaurants, will be able to expand outdoor areas. The number of cases across the continent increased in the winter and spring with Brazil, Argentina and Colombia ranking in the top 10 countries with the most confirmed cases, according to data collected by Johns Hopkins University. With time now promoting more outdoor activities, countries could start managing the spread of the virus better. Here’s a region-by-region breakdown of what to expect in South America during the summer, which officially begins December 21: This summer is shaping up very differently than the previous two for the northern part of South America, mainly due to the flu of La Niña. “The cool waters off Ecuador and Peru due to La Niña should lead to drier and cooler than normal conditions along the Pacific coast from Ecuador to Peru,” Nicholls said. While La Niña promotes drought conditions along the Pacific coast, it will have the opposite effect further inland. “On the contrary, beneficial rains are expected from Colombia, from the interior of Ecuador and from northeastern Peru, through Venezuela to the far north of Brazil,” said Nicholls. “The rains may be higher than normal in these areas.” Frequent periods of rain could lead to flash floods and landslides in the more mountainous terrain, but overall the wet summer will be beneficial throughout the region. “These rains should help alleviate drought conditions in parts of Venezuela and northwestern Brazil and improve conditions for hydropower generation in Venezuela,” Nicholls said. Most of Venezuela’s energy is supplied by hydroelectric power plants, and drought has been an important factor in the reliability of the energy source. Corruption and mismanagement have led to infrastructure failure and have also played a major role in the country’s water and electricity insecurity, according to the Associated Press. “Drought conditions across the nation have caused power outages in recent years,” Nicholls said. The impending rain this summer may not be enough to completely wipe out the drought, but it will be a big step forward in helping replenish water reservoirs across the region. The impending rain could also help in the short term for those struggling with water shortages in Venezuela. A woman washes protective masks with run-off water from Avila Mountain in Caracas, Venezuela on Sunday, June 21, 2020. Water shortages have continued to increase in Venezuela at a time when the coronavirus threat still makes hand washing is more critical. (AP Photo / Matias Delacroix) An estimated 86% of Venezuelans have an unreliable water source with some residents spending months without running water in their homes, the AP reported. In some cases, people have broken coronavirus lockdown measures to find water for their families. To make matters worse, water shortages make it harder for people to wash their hands and face masks regularly during the ongoing pandemic. However, with rain prospects, access to water may become easier during the summer months. This spring brought another bad fire season to South America, but the upcoming weather pattern could help slow the spread of the flames that have grown out of control across the continent. “The Amazon Basin is expected to have nearly or perhaps slightly above normal rainfall with higher than normal temperatures, which could help alleviate any fire problems,” Nicholls said. Just like in 2019, the fires burning in the Amazon Basin “were anything but routine,” NASA researchers said in October. “Instead of staying small and burning for short periods, this year the fires escaped and burned out of control in several ecosystems, including the Pantanal wetlands in eastern Asia. [Bolivia]; the dry forest of Chiquitano to the southeast; and the Beni savannah and areas of the Amazon rainforest in the north, “explained NASA. Smoke from these fires spread thousands of kilometers filling the skies of nearly half of South American countries. The smoke from the fires can be seen in South America on September 11, 2020. (NASA Worldview) In addition to helping slow the spread of fires, the expected rainfall will be good for farmers. “Major cultivated areas in Brazil from Minas Gerias to Mato Grosso to as far south as Santa Catarina and much of Bolivia and Paraguay are expected to have favorable growing conditions with occasional rainfall and near-above-normal temperatures, ”Nicholls said. However, this will not be the case for farmers across the region. . ” Major soybean and corn areas in Rio Grande Do Sul in Uruguay and northern Argentina may have drought problems with shifts of heat that can stress crops, “Nicholls said. The best rain opportunities for these areas will be from January. to the early part of February, which is the heart of t he growing season CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP As periods of rain regularly invade the Amazon Basin and major agricultural lands in Brazil this summer, the northeastern areas will experience a very different climate pattern. Rare rainfall is expected in northeastern Brazil, causing drought problems in the region. This includes the states of Bahia, Piaui, Ceara, Rio Grande Do Norte, Paraiba, Pernamuco, Alagoas and Sergipe, some of the hottest weather conditions across the continent this summer are expected to focus on Chile, Argentina and Uruguay with the potential for several waves of ca lore. “Much of central Argentina, as well as northern and central Chile, will be seasonally dry with frequent bouts of heat that can lead to drought problems,” Nicholls said. Major cities in South America, such as Buenos Aires, Argentina, Montevideo, Uruguay and Santiago, Chile, are all at risk of experiencing hot, dry conditions this summer. In Chile, this expected heat, coupled with prolonged periods of drought, will lead to a high risk of wildfires, particularly in the central and southern parts of the country, Nicholls said. Predominantly dry conditions across the region, although bad for drought, could be good news for sky watchers in December. On December 14, 2020, the moon will pass directly between Earth and the sun, creating a total solar eclipse that will be visible in parts of southern Chile and southern Argentina. The narrow zone that will be in the path of the moon’s shadow will not be too south of the location of the total solar eclipse in 2019. People observe a total solar eclipse from La Higuera, Chile on Tuesday, July 2, 2019 Tens of thousands of tourists and locals alike gazed at the sky on Tuesday as a rare total solar eclipse began to obscure the skies of northern Chile. (AP Photo / Esteban Felix) Much of the rest of South America will be able to witness a partial solar eclipse on this day, with the exception of Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana and northern Brazil, as long as cloudy conditions do. do not darken the sky. Also, proper glasses are needed to see the event as looking at the sun without a sunscreen can cause permanent eye damage. Keep checking AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather network at DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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